Two teams, only one team of destiny.

(photo from Imago/zumapress.com)
Before the Women's World Cup began, the German team was installed as the prohibitive favorites to win. Instead, the final in Frankfurt will be the United States against Japan, a match-up that looked stunningly unlikely just two weekends ago. Both the Yanks and the Japanese lost their last matches in group play, and so had to face very tough quarterfinal opponents, U.S. vs. Brazil and Japan vs. Germany.

The U.S. beat the Brazilians and Marta on penalty kicks. This was a big win, but not technically an upset. When the Japanese beat Germany in extra time 1-0. This was a huge upset.

The U.S. women are ranked number one in the world, and this finally might be the time for Abby Wambach (white headband, far right) to be the star on a winning World Cup team. She was the Next Big Thing when the superstars of the nineties were retiring. The Americans won the Olympic medals during her tenure as the number one goal scoring threat, but not the World Cup this century.

(photo by Johannes Eisele/AFP)

It pains me to write this, but I don't think they are the best team on the field this Sunday. If size were all that mattered, the game would not be played. It's going to look like a high school team playing middle schoolers when the U.S. plays Japan, but after a few minutes it should be clear that the middle schoolers are really good. The press will focus on stars, and Homare Sawa is the big name for the Japanese, but the real story is how well they pass and maintain possession.

It's madness to compare a woman's team to FC Barcelona right now. Heck, it's probably a mistake to compare any men's national team to Barça, they are so crazy good. But expect the Japanese to put on a clinic on Sunday.

In the past two weeks, the U.S. lost to the Swedes and the Swedes were crushed by the Japanese. The U.S. has to hope for some kind of rock/paper/scissors situation or they are going to get run into the ground.

For any U.S. fans who stop by - and I am a fan myself, by the way - take heart in the fact that I suck at prediction. I thought the Dutch could keep up with Spain in the men's World Cup final last year.

Oopsie.

If you are in the San Francisco Bay Area, there will be a big screen up in the Civic Center Plaza right across from City Hall where you can watch the game with a crowd for free. It's easy to get to on BART and it can be a lot of fun. My blog buddy (and real life buddy) sfmike has reported on the World Cup games there so far here and here.

I saw the Giants win the World Series there and it was a blast. The crowd probably won't be the same size, but it's the place to be at 11:45 a.m. on Sunday.

Hope to see you there.

Ten on twelve for fifty two minutes.

I had the times wrong for the games on Sunday, thinking the United States and Brazil would play at noon. I was scanning espn.com to see the score for the early game and saw that Sweden had already crushed Australia 3-1 and the U.S. was ahead 1-0 against Brazil at the half. So I scooted on down to La Estrellita to watch the second half.

Walking the few blocks, I had these strange feelings. I didn't really know who I was rooting for. I wanted to see the United States get through, but I also wanted to see some flashes of brilliance from Marta, the 25 year old Brazilian superstar who is the best female player in the world right now. (The Brazilian men are in the Copa America, playing listlessly. They were behind 2-1 in the second half against the never awe inspiring Paraguayans when the Brazilian fans began the chant "We want Marta! We want Marta!", though in Portuguese of course. The Brazilian Federico Chaves Gueves took this as a personal challenge and scored the tying goal in the 89th minute.)

Well, I got both the things I wanted. The Brazilians began attacking with better passes and plays, and Marta was brought down in the box for a penalty. Both players were tugging and struggling, but the ref called it on the American Rachel Beuhler and gave her a red card.

The Brazilian coach decided Christiane should take the penalty, and that might have been a mistake. Hope Solo made a spectacular save and the Americans were still in the lead. But the ref called for do-over. The announcers didn't know why and assumed the ref had called Solo for moving off the line before the shot, but instead an American stepped into the 18 yard box a little early, which technically is infringement but in practice is rarely called.

Being a sports fan is sometimes a trip down memory lane. It felt like the famous end of the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Olympic basketball game, where the last few seconds were played several times until the Russians got a chance to win, and then it was over.

On the re-shoot, it was Marta. There was no magical save. U.S. 1, Brazil 1. The Yanks would have only ten players on the field for the last twenty two minutes of the second half, and if it was still tied, they would play one down for another half hour.

The Americans hung tough, but several calls by the ref went the other way. The game did go into extra time, and I got to see a true flash of Marta brilliance. Closely marked and at a bad angle, she toe volleyed a ball out of the air, popping it up gently into the far corner of the net where it could not be reached. Earlier on the play, the woman who passed it to Marta appeared to be offside, but there was no call. It was ten on twelve, the twelfth opponent being the ref herself. Brazil 2, U.S. 1.

And so it stayed. For a man down, the U.S, was not playing a wait and see game, but instead running hard and setting up opportunities. The game was winding down and a Brazilian player fell to the ground, hoping one guesses to use up some clock. When she was finally escorted from the field, the game went into extra time. Three minutes away from elimination.

(photo by Petr David Josek/Associated Press)
And then the miracle goal. It was not a super pretty flash of brilliance like Marta might do, it was just what a better conditioned team can do against a team who is not as well prepared. Rapinoe sent a long cross into the box for Abby Wambach, much taller than her marking player. The Brazilian goalie Andreia didn't clear it and Abby put it right on her forehead into the back of the net. 2-2 and we go to penalty kicks.

You never know when it goes to PKs, but if foreshadowing means anything, you had a very strong hunch. Hope Solo looked great all game and Andreia looked shaky several times. Hope stopped an early attempt by Diaine, who in the first half scored an own goal when trying to clear a cross, so she got to be the double goat.

(Photo by Martin Rose/Getty Images)
When it was over, the American squad was all smiles. It could be argued they will not play a team as tough as Brazil in the rest of the tournament, but this has been a very strange set of games. They play France on Wednesday and if they pull that off, they face the winner of Sweden-Japan, two good teams that are also over-achieving at the moment. The Yanks should beat the French, but in this tournament, there has been a whole lot of should that has turned into shit.

Stay tuned.

Stunner.

To paraphrase Elvis Costello only slightly, the 2011 Women's World Cup was supposed to be "All this, but no surprises for this year's girls."

Germany was the host country. Germany had won the last two World Cups, in 2007 by not giving up a single goal. The Germans had players on their bench that would start for any other team in the world.

Japan was a challenge, but by no means an insurmountable one. It was the classic sports match-up, the big and strong German side versus the small and quick Japanese. It's always intriguing, but the smart money was all over Germany.

At the end of 90 minutes, it was still 0-0. The Germans had some bad luck when midfielder Kim Kulig fell awkwardly in the 8th minute and had to be replaced, but the big surprise was when Silvia Neid made her last substitution, it was clear that both veteran Birgit Prinz, the top goal scorer in Women's World Cup history, and Fatmire Bajramaj, the young face of German women's football, would not be used at all in this crucial game.

(Photo by Johannes Eisele, AFP)

It was still a scoreless draw after the first fifteen minutes of extra time, but in the 108th minute, the Japanese star Homare Sawa sent a perfect pass to a speeding Karina Maruyama, who put a tricky far post shot past the German goalie Angerer, who was naturally guarding the near post. This picture by Johannes Eisele captures the moment perfectly.

The emotions of the women's game are very different from the men's. There were German players weeping bitter tears and Japanese women weeping tears of joy for one the greatest successes in Japanese sports history.

The smart money said the Germans would win this thing. Pressed for a second choice, they thought the Americans had a chance, maybe the Brazilians if their suspect defense could hold together, an unlikely event given their history. As it stands now, any team that is still lacing up their boots as of today could be this year's champions, which includes the Yanks and the Samba Queens, who will meet tomorrow afternoon Pacific time.

Congratulations to the Japanese women for a well deserved and hard fought victory.

Not according to form, more's the pity.

Through the sixteen games of the Women's World Cup being played now in Germany, predicting the winners was pretty easy work. Look at the world rankings and what ever team was ranked higher would win or at worst draw. But then came the last eight games in group play, which started yesterday and ended this afternoon, and betting on favorites based on the rankings went to hell.

The Canadians were supposed to be the sixth best team in the world and the Nigerians 27th, but after two tough losses, the gals from Canuckistan had nothing left in the tank and lost 1-0. Japan and England met in a match that would decide first and second place in their division, and England beat the higher ranked Japanese. Besides the rankings, Japan had crushed Mexico 4-0, while England had only managed a draw against las Mexicanas.

A somewhat bigger surprise, at least historically, was Australia beating the Norwegians to get into the knockout rounds. The difference in their rankings was not that big, but Norway has a much shorter trip to get to Germany and they have won a World Cup. But there was foreshadowing in the earlier games, when the Aussies fought hard against Brazil and lost only 1-0, while Norway took a 3-0 beating at the feet of the Samba Queens. The Aussies beat the Norwegian 2-1 this morning and they will be playing the Swedes this weekend in the quarterfinals.

(photo from the New York Times)

Australia is playing Sweden because the Swedes beat the heavily favored Americans. The U.S. team could have been first in their group if they had managed a draw, but they gave up two goals in the first half on a penalty and a deflected free kick and they could not manage the comeback.

This is the first time the Yanks have lost a game in group play since the Women's World Cup began 20 years ago. This picture is from the only goal they scored, when Abby Wambaugh (number 20 in white, upper left) went up for a header but the ball hit the top of her shoulder instead and went in. It's was Wambaugh's first goal of the tourney and the only bright spot in an otherwise bad day for the Americans.

So now comes Sunday, and the Americans have to face Brazil. My loyalties are completely conflicted. I love the American team, but the Brazilians are so damned pretty when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net. The Brazilian defense is definitely suspect, but after today, the same can be said of the Yanks.

Even before these last few days of chaos, this was a tough match to predict. I usually leave prediction to the people who do it for money, but I'm going out on a limb and saying Brazil 3, United States 2 in regulation and at least one goal for the amazing Marta.

I'm definitely going to be in front of a TV for this one.

Pele or Messi? Is Marta enough?

Marta is the greatest female footballer in the game today. She might be the best of all time. Of course, she's just 25, so it's a little early to tell, but she padded her resume very nicely again on Sunday as the Brazilians destroyed the Norwegians, 3-0. Marta scored two goals and got the assist on the other. She clearly committed a foul that wasn't called on the first one, but that doesn't take anything away from her talent or accomplishments.

For people who don't "get" soccer, think about Jerry Rice. When the ball was passed, he'd be a step behind the defender. When the ball got to him, he was a step and a half ahead and off to the races. He had a fifth gear that none of the guys defending him had, with the possible exception of Deion Sanders.

And then there's the task of putting the ball in the back of the net. Marta has 78 goals in 71 international matches. That's flat out reee-donkulous. For comparison, Mia Hamm had 158 goals in 275 international appearances.

A goal a game is just crazy.

She's been compared to Pele. Pele agrees. But when Pele showed up, suddenly Brazil was the best team in the world and won three of the next four World Cups, in 1958, 1962 and 1970. This is Marta's second World Cup. Brazil lost in the final four years ago to Germany when the matches were in China. Now the matches are in Germany. It will take something close to a miracle for the Brazilians to pull it off this year.

Marta might be more like Lionel Messi, the Argentine superstar. He is the spark plug for FC Barcelona, the greatest pro squad in the world right now, but he's not enough to make Argentina the best national team. Unless things change dramatically, he probably won't be enough for them to win in 2014. The Argentines have the advantage in 2014 that the games will be played in South America, but the disadvantage that they will be played in Brazil.

Brazil's real problem is that the national organization does not take women's football seriously. Other squads playing in Germany this year played six or seven warm-up matches. Brazil played one. Their defense is haphazardly organized and eventually a team with real firepower, not a counterpunch team like Norway, is going to make the Brazilian goalkeeper's day a real challenge.

Still, whenever it's possible, I'm going to be in front of a TV when the Brazilians play for the rest of the tournament. The probability of Marta doing something amazing in every game she plays is so close to 100%, it's not worth mentioning the difference. Mathematicians call that epsilon. I compared her to Jerry Rice, Pele and Messi, but let me also compare her to Willie Mays. Like with Mays, on any given day you might see Marta do something you have never seen before and will never see again.

Spike Lee has a point.

Everybody knows Spike Lee has a mouth on him. He's full of opinions and he isn't shy about expressing them. He has a theory on why actors are usually so messed up. Here's a quote from a recent interview in The Hollywood Reporter.

“You’re out there buck-naked and that is hard," Lee said. "The reason why actors are fucked up; can you imagine having a job where someone is, ‘No, no, no. Your butt’s too big, your head's too big, you’re too skinny, your nose is too big?'”

He's absolutely right about this. I saw the movie Beginners last night and I thought about what Lee said. Everybody in this film looked fantastic.

Forgive me if I give away a few plot points.

Christopher Plummer looked great, even though he was playing an old man in poor health. Ewan McGregor looked great, though his character is depressed. The Jack Russell Terrier Cosmo is a little scruffy compared to Eddie in Frazier, but it is impossible not to adore him.

And then there's Mélanie Laurent, who American audiences might remember best as Shoshonna in Inglourious Basterds. She is beyond adorable in this film. In her first scene, she is supposed to have laryngitis, so it's just close ups of her not speaking. She has stunningly beautiful eyes and a lovely face, every feature is wonderful and the camera loves her.

But consider this picture of her from a red carpet. The haircut isn't flattering. She has two moles, one on her neck and one in the middle of her collarbone. If just one of them is visible, it's not too bad, but if she's on camera and both of them can be seen, it's distracting.

She was terrific in both the movies I've seen her in, but I don't know if she is going to become a big movie star, all over two moles.

Here's a young woman in a different situation. Hope Solo, goalkeeper for the women's U.S. national soccer team, now playing in the World Cup in Germany.

How does she get judged? She gets judged on how many goals she gives up. So far, the United States has won two games by shutout against North Korea and Colombia. So far, Hope Solo is perfect, but every game from now on will be a tougher test, including the final game in the group stage against Sweden.

She was also judged four years ago on her performance as a teammate. She was benched against Brazil in favor of Brianna Scurry and the U.S. lost 4-1. She criticized the coach and she was benched also for the third place game. Obviously, she has returned to the good graces of the team.

And, oh yeah, Hope Solo is a very attractive young woman. Women in sports are obviously being judged on their looks, and sadly there have been some second tier female athletes given ridiculous amounts of attention for their looks in spite their lackluster performances, like Anna Kournikova in tennis and Danica Patrick in auto racing. But the standard for attractiveness for female athletes is not as unforgiving as it is for other entertainers, and more importantly, it isn't the bottom line. She and the other women on the team have chances to get endorsements, but the most important component is to become champions like the previous generation back in the 1990s when the international game began.

Hello, Ladies!

Some of you might recall I caught a low grade infection last summer diagnosed as World Cup Fever. For many people, this disease can only be caught in even numbered years not divisible by four, but I also like to follow the Women's World Cup, the latest installment starting today in host country Germany.

It's almost not fair that the Germans are hosting, because they are the dominant team in women's football this century. They won the last two World Cups in 2003 and 2007. In 2007, they won the tournament by not giving up a single goal. (They didn't win all their games, as England played them to a 0-0 draw.)

Unlike the English and French, German national teams tend to look very European, but not this year. One of the German goal scorers was Celia Okoyino Da Mbabi, born in Bonn of a French mother and Cameroonian father. The other noticeably non-Aryan name on the squad is Fatmire Bajramaj, whose parents were refugees from Kosovo. Fatmire, known by the nickname Lira, is the new star being given the front and center position in the German press, though she didn't start the game today. All three of today's German subs, Bajramaj, Inka Grings and Alexandra Popp, are superstars that would have a starting job on any other squad playing in the tournament.

That's how good Germany is.



The Germans beat the Canadians in the opening match in Berlin, but the big news of the day is that the Canucks were not shut out. Trailing 2-0 in the second half and badly outplayed, Canada got a free kick from 25 yards and gave the honors to Christine Sinclair, Canada's greatest scoring star by a considerable margin. She hit a nasty twisting shot any man would be happy to mimic, just over the tall German wall and just under the crossbar. The goalie Nadine Angerer had no chance at all.

She is also the big news because she will not be playing in Canada's second match, a must win game against the French. Sinclair had her nose broken in the first half and only stayed in the game because she begged the coach Carolina Morace. The team doctor says it's too risky for her to play against the French on Thursday.

Some football fans don't like the women's game for the same reasons some basketball fans don't watch the WNBA. They aren't as big, fast or strong as the men, but that doesn't stop them from being tough, talented and fierce competitors. A slight advantage to the women's game is that flopping is not the pandemic it is in the male version.

The games from Germany will be airing in the morning here on the West Coast, so I won't be able to see a bunch of games on Mondays through Thursdays, but I'm going to do all I can to catch the games when I'm not working. I'm guessing that the experts predicting a German coronation know what they are talking about, but I expect a lot of drama along the way.