Questions Answered and Grading the Pirates

Here at Bucco Central, about a month ago, I wrote a post asking if Pittsburgh could ever be a baseball town again? Now that we're sitting smack dab in the middle of the dreaded All-Star break, I can say this:

Question. Answered. In the affirmative. 

Just one quick example:

--  Attendance at the Pirates game against the Cubs, the Friday before the All-Star break:  37,140.

--  Attendance at a comparable game in 2010, also right before the all-star break, also against a division rival (the Milwaukee Brewers), also on a Friday night:  27,767.

Where'd those extra 10,000 fans come from?

Winning. It's such a simple formula. Nobody goes to a baseball game because they can hear .38 Special and all of their hits like, "Hold on Loosely," and "Hold on Loosely," and, er, um, "Hold on Loosely." (Okay, this is Pittsburgh, so probably some people go to a baseball game to see .38 Special, but not that many.) I've been to  four sellouts this season -- four -- which, I think may be more sellouts than they had all of last year.

Behold, the power of winning.

Back in March, had you told me the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates would be 47-43 and 1 game out of first place in the division, I would have very kindly given you detailed directions to the Western Psych Step-Down Unit.

I also would have assumed that the Pirates built a record like that around Pedro Alvarez' bat. Going into the year, I figured the best way the Pirates could win would be with Alvarez generating a lot of instant offense. Get Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen on base in front of him and watch Pedro jack the ball into the PNC Park topiary.

But the Pirates, as you may have heard, have done it with pitching, more pitching, stellar bullpen pitching, and a shut-down closer who gives me a warm fuzzy feeling when the Pirates are nursing a lead going into the 9th. Joel "Warm Fuzzy" Hanrahan. But most people just call him "the Hammer."

Let's grade it out, position by position:

Starting Pitching:  A. If I'm grading the pitchers individually, it has to look like this:  Karstens - A; Correia - A; Maholm - A; Morton - B; McDonald - B. But as a group? Definitely an A. Using the formula of 7+ innings with 3 or fewer runs as a quality start, they have 19 such quality starts. Using 6+ innings as the cut-off, they have 45 such starts. Like I said, starting pitching -- A (leaning towards A+ if Morton can find his groove again.)

Relief Pitching:  A-. Though the starting pitching has done such amazing work, the bullpen has been great, as well, if a little less steady. Chris Resop shows flashes of complete and utter dominance, but when he's off, he is off. Same with Jose Veras. Daniel McCutchen has been steady Eddie for the team though and, the kid, Tony Watson has been good with occasional signs of great. Daniel Moskos is a lingering headache from the David Littlefield era (you don't use your No. 1 pick to get a middle of the road, middle reliever), but at least Ray Searage and Clint Hurdle are getting some decent innings from him.

Closer:  A+.  What can I even say about Hanrahan? In addition to the saves, I think his confidence, the way he works on the mound, his presence, gives the whole team an emotional lift. You can't tell me that going into the 7th and 8th innings of games, Andrew McCutchen isn't always thinking, 'If I can just get us ahead by one run, the Hammer will close it out ...'

1st Base:  C.  I know, I know, Lyle Overpay. I get the joke. But I still like the guy, for some reason. Clearly, the Pirates signed him to get more from his bat and he hasn't lived up to his reputation as a great glove guy with 8 errors this season. They need more from him. At the bag and in the batter's box. Period.

2nd Base:  B. Neil Walker's 59 RBI's lead the team, but I'd like to see that average up. Way up from where it is at .264. The good news is that, in the last 7 games before the break, he hit .475, so maybe he's turned a serious corner in terms of making contact. He's turned 59 double plays in the field, and I really like his presence on the field more than anything else. I think he's just a good, steady leader for this team.

Shortstop:  B-. Ronny Cedeno's a vacuum cleaner in the field and I really enjoy watching him work out there, but he's got a 10 cent head at the plate. We've seen Chase d'Arnaud out there for 9 games and he's less steady in the field, but a much better batter. Yeah, he's only hitting .221, but I've never seen d'Arnaud try to bunt with the bases loaded. Just saying.

3rd Base:  Incomplete. The Pirates did not use their #1 pick on Pedro Alvarez in order to test out guys like Brandon Wood, Josh Harrison and d'Arnaud at this spot., so I'm not going to grade them, just Alvarez. He was not performing well (at the plate at least) before his leg injury, averaging 1 strike out for every 3 at bats. I know that home run hitters whiff more than contact guys, but with only 2 home runs for his 42 strike outs, something is rotten in the state of Pedro. That said, I think Alvarez knows how to hit minor league pitching. He has to learn how to hit major league pitching and how to weather slumps, etc. When he comes back, he has to play every day, even if Hurdle has to move him to 7th or 8th in the batting order.

Catcher:  B. This was a hard grade to give out, given that the Pirates have had 7 different catchers behind the dish through the first half of the season. Based purely on performance (both defensively and offensively), I'd have to grade the position with a lower grade than a B, but ... that the Pirates have managed to raid the trash heap and keep chugging along is impressive. Okay, I admit that the grade did get a little bump upwards based on Michael McHenry's dinger last week against the Cubbies. It's hard not to root for McHenry.

While we're here, I'm not a fan of Ryan Doumit. God, it feels good to just get that off my chest. He just reminds me of the bad-old days of Jim Tracy and John Russell and David Littlefield. That is probably unfair to him, I know. And I also know that he's a better hitter than McHenry, or at the very least, has much better power numbers. But McHenry's defensive ability is exponentially better than Doumit's; moreover, let's not overstate Doumit's bat -- he ain't exactly Stan Musial at the plate. When/if Doumit's healthy, I'd still rather see McHenry as the regular catcher, with Doumit giving him a rest and being used in pinch-hitting situations. Or bundled in a trade and sent away, but that is for another post.

Left Field:  B+. I'm a big Jose Tabata fan. I just am. I'd like to see the strikeouts come down and the stolen bases go up, but I think the guy is an exciting player who has only begun to mine his potential. His speed in the field creates outs for the pitchers. In equally exciting news, the same can be said for his replacement, the 10 year-old Alex Presley. (Just kidding. Presley's 14 years-old.) I was looking forward to seeing the kid, mostly because I like to get a look at some of the prospects, but he is making a strong argument to stay with the big club even when Tabata returns. I probably would have graded Tabata by himself as a B, but Presley's been so fun, I had to bump the grade up slightly.

Center Field:  A+. That was easy. He hits, he flies, he makes spectacular catches. The kid is electric. He is the most exciting player I've seen around here since Barry Bonds was lithe. I'm not kidding.

Right Field:  C-. This is a disappointing spot. Well, I guess disappointing isn't the right word because I didn't expect all that much from the platoon of Matt Diaz and Garrett Jones. Right field is a spot where you need some pop in the bat. Jones has it, but his hitting is so inconsistent. Diaz is on my rat's ass list, which is to say, if he leaves, I don't give a rat's ass. I love Hurdle swapping them out to put the speedy Xavier Paul in there late in games, but Paul is a contact hitter and a speed guy, not a power hitter. I think he has value to the team, but I think that's more as a utility outfielder and a defensive stopper late in tight games.

If the Pirates are in the market to bring on some talent at the trade deadline (and Ogden Nutting says that they may be), this is clearly the spot they need to upgrade, more than catcher, and even more than 1st base. But, again, the question of whether the Pirates should buy, sell or stand pat is grist for another post, one that I feel coming on very soon.

[Photos:  topiary -- countingbaseballs.mlblogs.com; Veras -- bleacherreport.com; Walker - sports.yahoo.com; McHenry -- timesonline.com; McCutchen -- post-gazette.com]

Here's What .500 Looks Like, the June Edition

I don't think we're going to see that same, ugly implosion we saw last June. No sireee.

Is everybody else having fun with this? Because I sure as hell am.

On Paul Maholm, Balks and Missed Opportunities

I like the unusual occurrences, the kinds of screwball plays that don't happen all that often -- like a great run down, the use of the infield fly rule or the triple play. This is why I love balks. Love. Them. You don't see them very often. They're tricky, slippery little suckers, nebulous movements that happen in a blink of an eye. So I usually revel in the rare balk.

But I was not at all happy yesterday to see my friend the balk arrive at Citifield in the bottom of the 8th inning. Jose Veras' balk moved pinch-runner Willie Harris over from 1st base to 2nd base, which then allowed Mets Skipper Terry Collins to insert Josh Thole mid-at-bat for Chris Capuano. It was like dominos falling. Capuano was there to bunt Harris to second, but with Harris already at second, Collins was freed up to put a real hitter in there. With Thole at the plate, and after having committed a balk, Veras went temporarily insane, threw a wild pitch that put Harris at 3rd and then walked Thole. Instead of a man on 2nd and one out, the Pirates were up against men on 1st and 3rd and no outs.

The Deadliest Balk.


But, as deadly as all that was, in all honesty, the Pirates should never have been in that situation with the game tied in the 8th inning after building a 7-0 lead and chasing Mets starter Mike Pelfrey after just five innings.

The problems really started for the Pirates, not in the ill-fated 8th, but in the bottom of the 5th inning when Paul Maholm was still on the hill.

I have been critical of Maholm in this space, some of it is probably unfair, but some is justified. If I'm being completely fair, he's not a bad pitcher and, in fact, when he's good, he can be very good, a very sturdy starting pitcher. That said, Maholm goes from reliable lefty to bum in about one hot second. When he has his stuff, he's a good ground ball pitcher, but when he loses his stuff -- and it happens in a blink -- he's tossing grapefruits up there like Fat Jimmy Anderson.

I think this is why it's so easy for me to pick on Maholm. When the wheels come off for him, he gives up huge innings. Not one and two run innings, but four and five and six run innings. He seems to be a good guy. He wants to pitch well. He wants to carry the team. And his coaches want to believe in him. I get all of that and I think it's why every skipper who has come through here has made the mistake of sticking with Maholm too long and having it come back to bite the team in the ass.

Some pitchers can battle through a rough stretch and come out the other end. Not Maholm. When he gets in trouble, his curveball doesn't just hang, it positively dangles. As soon as opposing batters start hitting the ball in the air -- even for outs -- he's done. Which is why Clint Hurdle's spidey-sense should have been tingling in the bottom of the 5th -- as all three Mets' outs came on fly balls. Deep fly balls, too, not pop ups. As soon as you start seeing that from Maholm, don't think 'Paul Maholm,' think 'Fat Jimmy Anderson,' because you don't have much longer before he's going to flame out spectacularly.

After Maholm opened the 6th by giving up a double to Carlos Beltran and then walking Jason Bay, it was already too late for him.

So I'm reconsidering my criticisms of Maholm, trying find some balance. This one is on Maholm and Veras, but equally so on Ray Searge and Hurdle (both of whom I greatly love already). Know your pitcher.

Maholm doesn't battle out of trouble.

He pitches great.

Or he pitches like ass.

There's just no middle ground. First sign of trouble? Get the bullpen humming. It's just that simple.

What really frosts me about it was that it was such a great opportunity to take three out of four from the Mets, a franchise in complete disarray, but instead they lost a gut-punch game and now have to face the mighty Phillies. I would have felt a lot better about this weekend's series with that extra win under the Buccos' belts.



[Photos courtesy of mlb-baseball-blog.com and mlb.com]

Up and Down, and In and Out, with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Last night, in front of a sparse New York crowd (just about 25,000, of which 24,000 must have been in the upper decks, because it was mostly empty behind home plate and along the baselines), your Pittsburgh Pirates won their 17th road victory over the Mucking Fets -- as many road wins on June 1st, 2011 as they had throughout the entirety of the 2010 season. Per this morning's Post-Gazette story, the players are downplaying it, but I think that 2010 road trips must have felt like extended funeral corteges. Scratch that, I actually have been to funerals that were more fun than watching the Pirates on the road last year.


Not only have they equaled the number of road wins from last year, they actually have a winning record on the road (17-14, good for a winning percentage of .548.) They've got to find a way to replicate that kind of performance at home, but, you know, inconsistency is a hallmark of a young team. I think William Jennings Bryan said that first, but he was a hopeful guy and after watching 54 games of Pirates baseball this year, I am strangely hopeful, too.

After 54 games last year, the Pirates were 22-32 and while they have just four more wins this year (because I'm not stupid, I do understand that 26-28 is a losing record), they are a little package of possibility. In years past, it felt like they were putting band-aids on amputations, when they weren't self-mutilating shamelessly. This year feels like they're actually building towards something, and they have a legit core of talent -- if they keep them together, ... and if they nurture them, ... and if they add just a few more parts, ... and if the hitting comes around, ... and with a little seasoning ... you can see what they might become. There are flashes of greatness, even now.

Oh wait. I have to go sit down and fan myself, not because the air-conditioning is broken, but because I used the phrase "flashes of greatness" in the same sentence with "Pittsburgh Pirates."

It's way too early for that. I realize a lot of things have to tumble into place. And of course, a young team has to learn how to win, to a large degree.

Take the McCutchen brothers for instance.

Mid-level reliever Daniel McCutchen much better than expected out of the gate, allowing just one earned run in his first eight appearances, but in his last two appearances, he got lit up like Tara Reid, speaking of wasted youth.

Twin brother Andrew McCutchen was went 0 for seven, striking out five times in the first two games versus the Mets, then last night, he was three-for-five, with a run scored, plus he made a magnificent catch in the outfield. It's not just 'Cutch, of course -- the Pirates' bats have been the biggest source of inconsistency and disappointment. I have to warn you, the numbers are ugly:

** 13th in the NL in runs scored (208).

** 14th in the NL in team batting average (.236).

** 15th in the NL in OPS (.667).

** Dead last in the NL in total hits (420). Ouch.

** Dead last in the NL in total bases (632). Major ouch.

** They have the 2nd most strike outs in the NL with 433. That one, for some reason, just pains me more than the others. Like the kind of pain that you call 9-1-1 for.

"9-1-1. What's your emergency?"

"I'm having severe chest pains. It's hard to breathe."

"Ma'am, I have to ask this, are you watching the Pirates game?"

"What!? I have a really deep, sharp pain in my chest!"

"Yes, ma'am. I know. But I see that Lyle Overbay just whiffed for the 35th time and I have to ask if you were watching the Buccos game. We've had an on-slaught of calls due to the Pirates propensity to strike out."

"Oh, well, I guess I'll just go get a beer and finish watching the game. Sorry to bother you."

"No problem, but you might want to take aspirin before every game. Have a good night."

And yet, with all the strike outs and wildly variable hitting, the Pirates are only minus one in run differential and are becoming a tough team to beat, because of the pitching. Check out these wonderful numbers:

** Kevin Correia -- tops in MLB with wins with eight.

** Charlie Morton -- fourth best ERA in the NL at 2.51

** Joel Hanrahan -- sixth in the NL in saves with 14.

** Fifth in overall Team ERA at 3.45.

** 28 Legit Quality Starts from Correia, Maholm, Morton, McDonald and Karstens (by my count -- but your mileage may vary slightly.)

The quality of the pitching is a testament to Ray Searage, of whom we should all be penning folk songs and heroic odes. They are so much better than anybody expected and, I would guess, even Searage himself is probably surprised at how well they are performing.

Of course, the Pirates had a bad winning percentage through April and May last year (.403), then managed to go completely in the tank -- 6-20 in June, 9-16 in July, and 8-21 in August. A winning percentage of .287 has to be some kind of record, doesn't it? Just as my way of saying -- beware the dog days, kids.


[Photo credits: mysanantonio.com].

Pittsburgh Was Once a Baseball Town -- Can It Be One Again?

On Saturday night, I went to the Pirates game, a 6-2 win over the Detroit Tigers. Also, notably, it was a sell out, with the last 7,000 or so seats sold in walk-up traffic. Heck, I can't remember the last time I was at a sold out Pirates game. [Oh, wait, I can. It was opening day a couple of years ago, but before that, honestly, it had to be 1992 -- a late September game against the Mucking Fets at Three Rivers. I can actually picture my seats in the old concrete toilet on the third base side.]

The extraordinary drought since that 1992 season makes it easy to forget Pittsburgh's storied baseball history, perhaps the richest history you might find in a market this size, particularly when you factor in the amazing Negro League teams fielded by the Homestead Grays and the Pittsburgh Crawfords. Home to Honus Wagner. Site of the first World Series ever. Pie Traynor. Josh Gibson. And, of course, the great one, Roberto Clemente. It's a veritable murder's row of baseball luminaries.


But as much as baseball thrives on its past, it doesn't actually live in antiquity. After a while, the youngins' tire of hearing stories of the great 'We Are Family' team of my youth. They want heroes of their own, memories of their own. Of heroes and memories that build loyalty, we have lived in shameful want. Because of inept ownership, unwilling to spend money and seemingly unable to spend it wisely when they did open the purse strings, fans turned away out of frustration and boredom in equal parts. We justifiedly turned to other pursuits, other distractions; the Pirates were something to do if it was a give-away night, a fireworks night, or a particularly nice evening and it wasn't too inconvenient, and there wasn't a really good rerun of 'House' on.

As to the team itself? We all knew what to expect from the team -- more fire-sales of talent, inert and ineffectual skippers, more trades for a useless 'player to be named later,' more free-agency idiocy, and more signings of washed up locker room cancers. (Personally, I like my serving of locker room cancer served on a boat named Operation Shutdown.) Even on the rare occasion when things looked remotely optimistic, you could count on ownership to do something stupid.

No wonder this is a football town and a hockey town. The Steelers certainly did their part in worming their way into our hearts. Four Super Bowls in quick order will do that to a fanbase, and they managed to tread water, even during the leanest years in the 1980's. Then along came Mario and this became a rabid hockey town, too. The timing could not have been worse for, at the moment Mario was just starting his second date with Lord Stanley, the Pirates were falling into prosaic monotony.

What both of those teams give the fans consistently is hope. And hope, not bobbleheads or beach-towels, not fireworks or Steve Miller Band appearances, sells tickets.

Putting your faith in the post-1992 Pirates is not for the faint of heart, a bit like watching a slasher flick while nursing a case of food poisoning -- every moment is fraught with trepidation, watched through your fingers as you cover your eyes, and just when you think the worst of the nausea has passed, another wave of bilious queasiness crests.

Enter the 2011 Pirates. Right now, May of 2011, I sense a sea change in the mood around Pittsburgh these days. Sure, sure, the battling Buccos are two games under .500, but fans are starting to show just a bit of interest. You can almost smell it -- the faintest traces of hope. Perhaps applied obliquely, or just around the edges, but we are cautiously hopeful. Something just feels different.

The numbers only show part of the story -- their record is just two games better than they were at the same time last year; the team batting average is slightly improved (up to 24th from 29th); and slugging percentage is also moderately improved (up to 24th from 27th). The pitching, however, is much improved with the team ERA up to 15th (at 3.64) from dead last (at 5.00) in 2010. They have 25 quality starts in 46 games. If they continue at that pace, they would finish with upward of 95 quality starts over the season. Last year, they finished with just 71 quality starts all year. Wow.

You can't see it in the numbers, even though quality starts have been like hen's teeth around here, but it's something more than that. Watch a handful of games and something feels different and like pornography, I know it when I see it, sabremetrics be damned. I think a large part of it is the mindset of Clint Hurdle -- a refreshing combination of competence and charisma. His hitting, pitching and position coaches actually seem to, er, coach. So that's a start right there. He's instilled an aggressive mindset in his players. Last year, not one of the Pirates pitchers threw inside with any confidence. This year, they are taking ownership of the inside part of the plate. He has his guys running the basepaths like crazy, testing other teams constantly. Honestly, I saw a game last year, when the Buccos had a guy on 2nd base and he didn't score on a double. How is that even possible? What was he doing on 2nd base? Texting?

For the sake of argument, let's say that Hurdle is getting everything that you can get from the talent he has, that what we're seeing is the upper limit for this collection of players. And let's say he is consistent enough that the rest of the season plays out like it has so far -- that the Pirates neither improve appreciably, but neither do they decline. With a winning percentage of .478, that would amount to 77 wins for the season and I think the fans can live with that. Actually, I think the fans would be thrilled with that. Heck, if they go into the final series of the season with say, 75 wins, I think the town will rename Fort Duquesne for Hurdle (I like the sound of 'Fort Hurdle'), erect statues of Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen, and possibly elect Joel Hanrahan to the Mayor's office (actually, he might be an improvement.)

Not that 75 or 77 wins are the long term goals. But compared to what we saw of the Jim Tracy and John Russell eras, that is an epic improvement. More to the point, mightn't this be the season you could possibly point to and say, "that was the turning point." Dare we even hope for that?

In fairness, it must be pointed out that it is usually right around this time when management makes a tragically bone-headed move, but if Saturday night was any indication, I think the fans are ready -- ready to give these guys a chance. Hurdle's doing his job. McCutchen is doing his job. Kevin Correia is doing much more than any of us anticipated. So now? Now is the time that management has to find a way not to screw up a good thing -- the hope of Pirates fans is more fragile than an orchid, more delicate than a Ming vase.

Tread lightly, he who lives in hopes of increased attendance.


[McCutchen photo courtesy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; Hanrahan photo courtesy of Pittsburgh Tribune Review.]

One Game Over .500

Here's what 18-17 looks like kids:

What in the World Is Wrong with Pedro?

More thoughts from Bucco central.

Since the days of Honus Wagner, a third baseman is supposed to be, by design, a serious bopper. It's truism because it generally works -- good baseball teams have a a big stick, or a reliable stick (or both) at third base.

All of which made suffering through the Andy Laroche era an especially painful indignity. Understandably, much rejoicing ensued in places as far flung as Carrick and Millvale, Bloomfield and East Liberty when the big club called Pedro Alvarez up from AAA ball. Word was that Alvarez was the draft pick that the Pirates finally got right -- a can't miss prospect, a prospect so coveted, in fact, that the Pirates drafted him second overall, even knowing they would have to deal with his agent, the noxious Scott Boras, in contract negotiations. Alvarez was so good as to be worth that. They, and we, expected to get some bang for our trouble.


I don't mean to call out Alvarez, given that pretty much every hitter in the Pittsburgh line-up has struggled sporadically through the first month of baseball and nobody in the starting line up has a batting average over .300, [except Chris Snyder and Xavier Paul, but those guys have fewer than 50 at bats per, hardly a significant sampling.] Still, the only guy in the lineup whose struggles seriously concern me is, you got it, Pedro Alvarez.

Every hitter slumps sometimes, beyond which, we all knew that Pedro couldn't hit a curveball when he was still in AAA ball. (We should all be lighting candles and leaving delicious, fruity umbrella drinks for Jobu on Alvarez' behalf.) So his struggles against major league curveballs isn't at all surprising, but what is alarming is his approach at the plate. I don't want to say he's timid, but he's certainly apprehensive up there. He has yet to meet a first pitch he won't watch blow by him.

Last night, in a typical at bat, he struck out looking. Is anything more frustrating than watching a guy strike out while standing there like a statue? In 28 games this year, he's had 99 at bats and in that time, he's struck out 34 times -- good for 1.2 strike outs per game. Or one strike out every third time to the plate. Depending on how you want to slice it.

Worse yet, he's faced an 0-2 count 40 times in those plate appearances. Forty! And every time, every single time of those forty 0-2 counts, he's made an out. Never once has he battled back from that count to somehow hit a grounder up the middle, or work a pitcher for a walk.

It seems to me your third baseman, the guy you drafted to bat clean up, should be a guy who is able to battle through disadvantageous counts. At least some of the time. And, more to the point, that hitter should feel like he's the man in the batter's box. If not aggressive, he should at least be confident. I'm seeing none of that right now. On the other hand, if my batting average were as anemic as Alvarez', I might look less than confident, too.

We all rush to judgment so fast with athletes. Players are declared busts before the All-Star break. That kind of reaction is ridiculous, but his start has been disappointing, has it not? Clint Hurdle has tried everything, and, in an effort to take the pressure off him, has moved Pedro to the seven-hole in the line up. Last week, he even had him attempt a bunt.
Alvarez has a long road in front of him to be a legit major league hitter and the thinking goes that you can teach a guy to hit, if he has power. We know Alvarez has power. When he's feeling confident and when he gets a fastball, he can hit it out of any yard, but still it seems to me that is a lot to teach a guy -- to (a) recognize pitches, (b) adjust to them, and then actually (c) swing at them.

Hurdle has already turned this team from downright unwatchable to moderately entertaining, enough for canonization in my opinion. If he can turn Alvarez around, we'll be re-naming streets for the guy. And frankly, I feel like if anybody can do it, it's Hurdle and hitting coach Gregg Ritchie.

But Pedro's struggles put Hurdle in a tough position. In the long-term, the team needs Alvarez if they want to actually turn the whole thing around. Still, Hurdle has to win and he has to win now. I'm thinking last night's minor injury, assuming it is minor and will just afford him a few days off, might be a good thing for everybody involved.

Pirates Pitching, Jeff Karstens Reconsidered

I had this job once. Over time, it became more and more frustrating. Looking back, I think I was too easy to get along with, I didn't complain much and I didn't mind doing any tasks that others avoided or refused. It's just not a big deal, I thought. I have perspective, you know? It's just a job and, moreover, I'm a good team player. But it never paid off in ways that were beneficial to me. I'm sure that my easy-breezy style benefited other people, but not actually me. It didn't mean more money. It didn't mean better assignments. It didn't mean better treatment. No it meant that I always got stuck with unpleasant, boring, or otherwise unfulfilling assignments.

Because I was willing to do the shit work, I was always stuck with the shit work. And once you establish yourself as the person who will shovel shit, nobody else is going to offer to shovel the shit. The lesson to be learned is what I like to call the Shit Shoveling Syndrome (tm) -- if you offer to shovel shit, you had best love shoveling shit because nobody is going to relieve you of the shoveling of the shit out of sense of fair play or kindness. You are always going to be the one doing it. So get used to it.

On Saturday night, in attempt to wash the bitter taste of the Penguins performance out of my mouth, I turned on the Pirates game. Good god -- Jeff Karstens was masterful. He limited the Washington Nationals (or, Natinals, depending on which jerseys they wear) to just two runs through six innings and left his team with a comfortable five-run lead, having thrown just 87 pitches, 51 of them strikes. It was an homage to Ray Miller's mantra: Work fast, throw strikes, change speeds. It was a joy to watch Karstens on the mound. (I can't believe I just typed that, but it's true.)

I don't think you can reasonably expect much more from your fourth or fifth starting pitcher, even on teams with top-price, top-flight pitching.

I hope that Karstens is rewarded for his efforts, that he doesn't fall prey to the Shit Shoveling Syndrome, too.

On April 13, Colin Dunlap wrote this for the Post-Gazette:

'Such is the life of the swingman of the staff, a function Karstens has mastered brilliantly. ...

Manager Clint Hurdle views Karstens as the perfect guy to have the responsibility of sometimes-reliever, sometimes-starter, all-the-time competitor.

"He doesn't have an agenda," Hurdle said of Karstens, who hasn't allowed an earned run in 52/3 innings of work this season. "Most players have an agenda.

"His dream is to be on a good ballclub and be a part of it. And that is refreshing. And then to back that up with action is more impressive."'

When Ohlendorf suffered an injury in just his second start of the year, Karstens stepped into the starting rotation. He has performed quite well in his two starts, and frankly better than anything we've seen from Ohlendorf since the 2009 season.

Point being, just because Karstens would likely be willing to go back to the bullpen, I think he's earned his spot, which is to say, far away from the shit shoveling detail.

Ohlendorf is on the 15 day disabled list, but it's likely he'll be out for an entire month. He was wildly ineffective before the injury. When/if he comes back, Karstens has shown (so far) that he deserves a spot in the starting rotation and he shouldn't be punished because he would be 'willing to take one for the team' as it were. He looks to be at least as good as Ohlendorf and, I think, a better option for the team. Here's hoping that Karstens continues the way he has been, and also that Hurdle breaks the Shit Shoveling Syndrome by keeping Karstens in the starting rotation.

[photo courtesy of Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

The Pittsburgh Pirates: Playing Baseball Like They Care

But still -- it's not enough.

It would be nice to believe that grit and effort will get you through to the promised land with a bunch of has-beens, never-weres, and never-shoulda-beens because they just want it more than the other guys. What a wonderful world it would be if you could simply 'Braveheart' your way into the MLB playoffs.It would be grand if it were actually possible to just "win the whole fucking thing," as Tom Berenger says in 'Major League,' out of spite and sheer bull-headedness. But those are movies and it's a fantasy to believe that you can win a World Series (or even your division), just because you want it more. Sure, you need desire, will and resilience. You need guys who believe and who put in the effort necessary to win.

But you also need starting pitching, relief pitching and a shut-down closer. You need speed on the basepaths and power in the batters box. You need a bunch of guys who can actually, you know, hit a curveball.

And you need a skipper to pull it all together.

The Pirates have the last element, I believe. I believe Hurdle is a good manager. I believe he might even be a great one. At the very least, he's interesting, awake, seems to give a shit, is willing to take some chances and, also, is a guy who stressed fundamentals in spring training. These are all good things. Hurdle is a monumental improvement over John Russell. Hurdle is both engaged and engaging; Russell was comatose. On his best days.

But, really, without a significant improvement in on-field talent, how many wins can a manager account for? I'm saying seven, maybe 10 at the outside. If you put Hurdle in the Pirates dugout last year, that roster might could have won 64 games (maybe 67) rather than 57. They were a bad team. That fact was exacerbated by the presence of a bad manager.

But, aside from the coaching improvement how much different, how much better are these guys? Let's look at the bats first, then the arms.

This is last season's opening day line up: 1. Aki Iwamura (2B), 2. Andrew McCutchen (CF), 3. Garrett Jones (RF), 4. Ryan Doumit (C), 5. Lastings Milledge (LF), 6. Jeff Clement (1B), 7. Andy LaRoche (3B), 8. Pitcher (in this case, Zach Duke and yes, Russell had so little confidence in his short-stop that he had him batting 9th), 9. Ronnie Cedeno (SS).

Of course, even the inert Russell had the sense to sit Iwamura (and his knee-brace, and his .182 batting average. Face of futility = Iwamura) after a while and bring up guys like Alvarez and Tabata. But even with those mid-season moves, the Pirates ranked 29th in runs, 29th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging percentage.

This year's batting order is much improved if for no other reason than the absence of Iwamura. The 2011 opening day batting order looked like this: 1. Jose Tabata (LF), 2. Neil Walker (2B), 3. McCutchen (CF), 4. Lyle Overbay (1B), 5. Pedro Alvarez, 6. Doumit (C), 7. Jones (RF), 8. Cedeno (SS), 9. Pitcher (in this case, Kevin Correia).

This year's line up should rank much higher in all categories. But even though they are better, are they that much better? Today, they are 29th in run, 25th in batting average, 26th in slugging percentage, and 24th in on-base percentage (that increase might be due solely to the great play of Tabata in the lead-off spot.) Hurdle thought they'd be better than those stats. Heck, we all did. Not that we expected the 1933 Pittsburgh Crawfords mind you, but we did expect to see more lively bats and more runs. The bats may yet turn a corner, crack into the middle percentages for runs scored and on-base percentages. Let's hope so.

Even if the bats wake up, even if Alvarez can actually hit a breaking ball once in a lunar cycle, will it make that much of a difference in terms of record? Unless Clint Hurdle can go out and pitch, how many more wins can we expect him to generate?

Kevin Correia, with his career 4.52 era is expected to anchor the Bucco rotation. Well, he's an improvement over having Zach Duke as your staff 'ace,' and, except for his last outing against the Brewers, he's looked pretty good, which is to say, he'd be a great acquisition if he were your #3 or #4 pitcher. That would be fantastic. That he is the staff ace, tells you something about the rest of the rotation.

Paul Maholm. Well, enough said, enough seen, enough. Enough of Paul Maholm.

The best thing that may have happened to the Pirates is an injury to Ross Ohlendorf. Journos who were at spring training report that Karstens looked better than Ohlendorf anyway, so Ohlendorf v. Karstens in the line-up? What's the difference? It's just an arm to put out there every five days and probably not an arm that should be in an MLB uniform, other than as a long-reliever anyway.

The interesting guys are the four and five pitchers: Charlie Morton and James McDonald. Folks seem to be excited about the potential of both of these guys. And even though I haven't quite seen what those folks are seeing, I'm going to reserve judgment on both of Morton and McDonald until I see more from them.

So, to break down the starting pitching: we have two guys we know are pretty bad but show just enough that the team doesn't quite want to give up on them (Maholm and Ohlendorf); one guy we know is pretty good -- not great, but good (Correia); two guys who are question marks (McDonald and Morton); and one guy who is a long-reliever dressed up as a starter (Karstens).

I think Hurdle will get everything he can from these guys. I love the way his staff handles base-running. I love the aggressive attitude. But when you have to rely on guys like Maholm and Meek, Crotta and Karstens (I assume he'll pitch in Ohlendorf's absence?), the team would have to score upwards of eight runs every night.

On opening day, I predicted 64 wins, which would be a seven game improvement over last year's finish. Even though they've hit a pretty rough patch in the past week, I'm going to upgrade that to 66 wins, just based on my opinion of Hurdle and what I've seen from Tabata as a lead off man. Is that enough improvement for Pittsburgh fans? What kind of record would satisfy you?