Is Third Base Cursed Land for the Pittsburgh Pirates? And Man-Games Lost.

Meanwhile, back at Bucco Central ...

Pirates 3rd baseman Pedro Alvarez continues to toil away in AAA ball, having come off the disabled list a few days before the All-Star break. It is important to remember who Alvarez is -- the guy who was supposed to be the power bopper the Pirates have long needed, the guy drafted to be the savior of the franchise. I screamed, you screamed, we all screamed for Pedro.

The numbers:  Before going on the DL, Pedro had been to the plate 125 times. He had two dingers and 42 strike outs. And yes, for all of you Douglas Adams fans, that's forty-two strikeouts. So yeah, he was whiffing about a third of the time at the plate. The strike-out rate is no better in his brief stint in Indianapolis where, in the course of 10 games, he's been to the plate 34 times and struck out 13 times, with zero home runs.

The Pirates drafted him to be the guy. In fact, I recall fans saying that if the organization didn't draft Pedro, it was a sign that they weren't trying, that it would be a replay of the draft wherein they showed how scared they were to draft a potential star -- so scared that they selected Daniel Moskos rather than Matt Wieters. So, I think we can all agree that, when the picked Pedro, they did draft the guy for whom there was universal acclaim and hope.

Third base has been a giant miasma of whiffs, salary dumps and suck in Pittsburgh. Before Pedro was called up, Andy Laroche was on the hot corner; nobody thought he was a long-term solution.

Before that, of course, it was Jose Bautista, who they Pirates just ... just ...whiffed. A whiff of such monumental proportions that I get a pain in my lower abdomen every time I flip on SportsCenter to see that Joey Bats launched another long-ball for the Blue Jays.

And, of course, when we discuss despair at 3rd base, we can never forget David Littlefield's lasting gift of shit to the City of Pittsburgh:  his trade of Aramis Ramirez to the Chicago Cubs for a bag of used jock-straps and batting practice balls.

I took the time to look at who has worked 3rd for a significant period of time, other than the aforementioned Alvarez, Laroche, Bautista, and Ramirez. It's a who's who of 'who the hell is that guy?' Ready?

Joe Randa, Jose Castillo, Ty Wiggington, Bobby Hill (Bobby Hill???), Chris Stynes, Ed Sprague, Doug Strange (wasn't he the keyboard player for The Doors?), Charlie Hayes (they would have been better off with Isaac Hayes in there), Jeff King, and Steve Buechele.  Phew. That just gets us back to 1993. I just can't keep going now.

The Pirates have been so bad for so long, that its hard to stick by young guys who are struggling. How do you know when a guy is a bust? How long can you tolerate his strike out percentage? Particularly if you, as the Pirates inexplicably do, find yourself in the middle of a race for a division title? You have to win and win right now. If the Pirates were in the middle of another crapulous season, they could just toss Pedro Alvarez out there and let him work through his struggles, right?

But we have to face the harsh fact -- there is no guarantee that the success the battling Buccos are having this year will repeat next year or the year after that. They have to try to win the division this year. Can they do it with Pedro's rally killing every-third-at-bat strike out percentage?

He creates a distinct problem. They can't give up on him like they did Bautista, that is for certain. At this point, he still is the future of the franchise, the 'instant offense' guy they so desperately need. The fact is, Pedro is one of the keys to the club's long-term success. They don't need to shop for a big bat if Pedro ever learns how to hit major league breaking stuff.

I have no idea what to do with the kid. Maybe lots of at-bats at AAA will help, so they should just keep him there and continue with the status quo? Maybe they should have the batting practice pitcher throw him nothing but curveballs until he learns how to freaking hit one? Maybe, like Ricky Vaughn, they should get him some new eyeglasses?


Meanwhile, I love the hockey stat of 'man-games lost,' so here's the baseball version, for your battling Bucs:

Starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf has been on the DL longer than I can even remember (did anybody even remember he was supposed to be the fifth man in the rotation?), but with pitchers you can't count every game as a man-game missed. Let's just say that he's missed every game that Karstens has started, which is to say, 16 games for Ohlendorf.  [I'm on record as saying I think this ended up being a positive for the team (no offense, Ross) because Jeff Karstens is maybe the most reliable guy on the staff.]

Alvarez went on the DL following the April 30th game versus the Colorado Rockies and has missed 65 games.

Then, they lost catcher Ryan Doumit (missed 42 games), and then the other catcher, Chris Snyder (29 games missed). I think they've had six different guys behind the plate, none of which are very exciting prospects at the plate mind you.

Left fielder Jose Tabata has missed 15 games.

Short-stop Ronny Cedeno -- 11 games lost.

Throw in Evan Meek -- unavailable to the Pirates out of the pen for much of the season. He has appeared in 17 games this year, and been unavailable for the rest. According to the Post-Gazette, he'll be out at least until late July. For what all that is worth. They sure could have used a healthy Meek last night in Houston when Jose Veras alternated between trying to nibble around the strike zone and just throwing big grapefruits up there. But your mileage may vary.



[Photos:  Alvarez -- sportsillustrated.cnn.com and hardballtalk.nbcsports.com; Tabata -- rotoexperts.com]

Pirates Pitching, Jeff Karstens Reconsidered

I had this job once. Over time, it became more and more frustrating. Looking back, I think I was too easy to get along with, I didn't complain much and I didn't mind doing any tasks that others avoided or refused. It's just not a big deal, I thought. I have perspective, you know? It's just a job and, moreover, I'm a good team player. But it never paid off in ways that were beneficial to me. I'm sure that my easy-breezy style benefited other people, but not actually me. It didn't mean more money. It didn't mean better assignments. It didn't mean better treatment. No it meant that I always got stuck with unpleasant, boring, or otherwise unfulfilling assignments.

Because I was willing to do the shit work, I was always stuck with the shit work. And once you establish yourself as the person who will shovel shit, nobody else is going to offer to shovel the shit. The lesson to be learned is what I like to call the Shit Shoveling Syndrome (tm) -- if you offer to shovel shit, you had best love shoveling shit because nobody is going to relieve you of the shoveling of the shit out of sense of fair play or kindness. You are always going to be the one doing it. So get used to it.

On Saturday night, in attempt to wash the bitter taste of the Penguins performance out of my mouth, I turned on the Pirates game. Good god -- Jeff Karstens was masterful. He limited the Washington Nationals (or, Natinals, depending on which jerseys they wear) to just two runs through six innings and left his team with a comfortable five-run lead, having thrown just 87 pitches, 51 of them strikes. It was an homage to Ray Miller's mantra: Work fast, throw strikes, change speeds. It was a joy to watch Karstens on the mound. (I can't believe I just typed that, but it's true.)

I don't think you can reasonably expect much more from your fourth or fifth starting pitcher, even on teams with top-price, top-flight pitching.

I hope that Karstens is rewarded for his efforts, that he doesn't fall prey to the Shit Shoveling Syndrome, too.

On April 13, Colin Dunlap wrote this for the Post-Gazette:

'Such is the life of the swingman of the staff, a function Karstens has mastered brilliantly. ...

Manager Clint Hurdle views Karstens as the perfect guy to have the responsibility of sometimes-reliever, sometimes-starter, all-the-time competitor.

"He doesn't have an agenda," Hurdle said of Karstens, who hasn't allowed an earned run in 52/3 innings of work this season. "Most players have an agenda.

"His dream is to be on a good ballclub and be a part of it. And that is refreshing. And then to back that up with action is more impressive."'

When Ohlendorf suffered an injury in just his second start of the year, Karstens stepped into the starting rotation. He has performed quite well in his two starts, and frankly better than anything we've seen from Ohlendorf since the 2009 season.

Point being, just because Karstens would likely be willing to go back to the bullpen, I think he's earned his spot, which is to say, far away from the shit shoveling detail.

Ohlendorf is on the 15 day disabled list, but it's likely he'll be out for an entire month. He was wildly ineffective before the injury. When/if he comes back, Karstens has shown (so far) that he deserves a spot in the starting rotation and he shouldn't be punished because he would be 'willing to take one for the team' as it were. He looks to be at least as good as Ohlendorf and, I think, a better option for the team. Here's hoping that Karstens continues the way he has been, and also that Hurdle breaks the Shit Shoveling Syndrome by keeping Karstens in the starting rotation.

[photo courtesy of Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

The Pittsburgh Pirates: Playing Baseball Like They Care

But still -- it's not enough.

It would be nice to believe that grit and effort will get you through to the promised land with a bunch of has-beens, never-weres, and never-shoulda-beens because they just want it more than the other guys. What a wonderful world it would be if you could simply 'Braveheart' your way into the MLB playoffs.It would be grand if it were actually possible to just "win the whole fucking thing," as Tom Berenger says in 'Major League,' out of spite and sheer bull-headedness. But those are movies and it's a fantasy to believe that you can win a World Series (or even your division), just because you want it more. Sure, you need desire, will and resilience. You need guys who believe and who put in the effort necessary to win.

But you also need starting pitching, relief pitching and a shut-down closer. You need speed on the basepaths and power in the batters box. You need a bunch of guys who can actually, you know, hit a curveball.

And you need a skipper to pull it all together.

The Pirates have the last element, I believe. I believe Hurdle is a good manager. I believe he might even be a great one. At the very least, he's interesting, awake, seems to give a shit, is willing to take some chances and, also, is a guy who stressed fundamentals in spring training. These are all good things. Hurdle is a monumental improvement over John Russell. Hurdle is both engaged and engaging; Russell was comatose. On his best days.

But, really, without a significant improvement in on-field talent, how many wins can a manager account for? I'm saying seven, maybe 10 at the outside. If you put Hurdle in the Pirates dugout last year, that roster might could have won 64 games (maybe 67) rather than 57. They were a bad team. That fact was exacerbated by the presence of a bad manager.

But, aside from the coaching improvement how much different, how much better are these guys? Let's look at the bats first, then the arms.

This is last season's opening day line up: 1. Aki Iwamura (2B), 2. Andrew McCutchen (CF), 3. Garrett Jones (RF), 4. Ryan Doumit (C), 5. Lastings Milledge (LF), 6. Jeff Clement (1B), 7. Andy LaRoche (3B), 8. Pitcher (in this case, Zach Duke and yes, Russell had so little confidence in his short-stop that he had him batting 9th), 9. Ronnie Cedeno (SS).

Of course, even the inert Russell had the sense to sit Iwamura (and his knee-brace, and his .182 batting average. Face of futility = Iwamura) after a while and bring up guys like Alvarez and Tabata. But even with those mid-season moves, the Pirates ranked 29th in runs, 29th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging percentage.

This year's batting order is much improved if for no other reason than the absence of Iwamura. The 2011 opening day batting order looked like this: 1. Jose Tabata (LF), 2. Neil Walker (2B), 3. McCutchen (CF), 4. Lyle Overbay (1B), 5. Pedro Alvarez, 6. Doumit (C), 7. Jones (RF), 8. Cedeno (SS), 9. Pitcher (in this case, Kevin Correia).

This year's line up should rank much higher in all categories. But even though they are better, are they that much better? Today, they are 29th in run, 25th in batting average, 26th in slugging percentage, and 24th in on-base percentage (that increase might be due solely to the great play of Tabata in the lead-off spot.) Hurdle thought they'd be better than those stats. Heck, we all did. Not that we expected the 1933 Pittsburgh Crawfords mind you, but we did expect to see more lively bats and more runs. The bats may yet turn a corner, crack into the middle percentages for runs scored and on-base percentages. Let's hope so.

Even if the bats wake up, even if Alvarez can actually hit a breaking ball once in a lunar cycle, will it make that much of a difference in terms of record? Unless Clint Hurdle can go out and pitch, how many more wins can we expect him to generate?

Kevin Correia, with his career 4.52 era is expected to anchor the Bucco rotation. Well, he's an improvement over having Zach Duke as your staff 'ace,' and, except for his last outing against the Brewers, he's looked pretty good, which is to say, he'd be a great acquisition if he were your #3 or #4 pitcher. That would be fantastic. That he is the staff ace, tells you something about the rest of the rotation.

Paul Maholm. Well, enough said, enough seen, enough. Enough of Paul Maholm.

The best thing that may have happened to the Pirates is an injury to Ross Ohlendorf. Journos who were at spring training report that Karstens looked better than Ohlendorf anyway, so Ohlendorf v. Karstens in the line-up? What's the difference? It's just an arm to put out there every five days and probably not an arm that should be in an MLB uniform, other than as a long-reliever anyway.

The interesting guys are the four and five pitchers: Charlie Morton and James McDonald. Folks seem to be excited about the potential of both of these guys. And even though I haven't quite seen what those folks are seeing, I'm going to reserve judgment on both of Morton and McDonald until I see more from them.

So, to break down the starting pitching: we have two guys we know are pretty bad but show just enough that the team doesn't quite want to give up on them (Maholm and Ohlendorf); one guy we know is pretty good -- not great, but good (Correia); two guys who are question marks (McDonald and Morton); and one guy who is a long-reliever dressed up as a starter (Karstens).

I think Hurdle will get everything he can from these guys. I love the way his staff handles base-running. I love the aggressive attitude. But when you have to rely on guys like Maholm and Meek, Crotta and Karstens (I assume he'll pitch in Ohlendorf's absence?), the team would have to score upwards of eight runs every night.

On opening day, I predicted 64 wins, which would be a seven game improvement over last year's finish. Even though they've hit a pretty rough patch in the past week, I'm going to upgrade that to 66 wins, just based on my opinion of Hurdle and what I've seen from Tabata as a lead off man. Is that enough improvement for Pittsburgh fans? What kind of record would satisfy you?