Up and Down, and In and Out, with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Last night, in front of a sparse New York crowd (just about 25,000, of which 24,000 must have been in the upper decks, because it was mostly empty behind home plate and along the baselines), your Pittsburgh Pirates won their 17th road victory over the Mucking Fets -- as many road wins on June 1st, 2011 as they had throughout the entirety of the 2010 season. Per this morning's Post-Gazette story, the players are downplaying it, but I think that 2010 road trips must have felt like extended funeral corteges. Scratch that, I actually have been to funerals that were more fun than watching the Pirates on the road last year.


Not only have they equaled the number of road wins from last year, they actually have a winning record on the road (17-14, good for a winning percentage of .548.) They've got to find a way to replicate that kind of performance at home, but, you know, inconsistency is a hallmark of a young team. I think William Jennings Bryan said that first, but he was a hopeful guy and after watching 54 games of Pirates baseball this year, I am strangely hopeful, too.

After 54 games last year, the Pirates were 22-32 and while they have just four more wins this year (because I'm not stupid, I do understand that 26-28 is a losing record), they are a little package of possibility. In years past, it felt like they were putting band-aids on amputations, when they weren't self-mutilating shamelessly. This year feels like they're actually building towards something, and they have a legit core of talent -- if they keep them together, ... and if they nurture them, ... and if they add just a few more parts, ... and if the hitting comes around, ... and with a little seasoning ... you can see what they might become. There are flashes of greatness, even now.

Oh wait. I have to go sit down and fan myself, not because the air-conditioning is broken, but because I used the phrase "flashes of greatness" in the same sentence with "Pittsburgh Pirates."

It's way too early for that. I realize a lot of things have to tumble into place. And of course, a young team has to learn how to win, to a large degree.

Take the McCutchen brothers for instance.

Mid-level reliever Daniel McCutchen much better than expected out of the gate, allowing just one earned run in his first eight appearances, but in his last two appearances, he got lit up like Tara Reid, speaking of wasted youth.

Twin brother Andrew McCutchen was went 0 for seven, striking out five times in the first two games versus the Mets, then last night, he was three-for-five, with a run scored, plus he made a magnificent catch in the outfield. It's not just 'Cutch, of course -- the Pirates' bats have been the biggest source of inconsistency and disappointment. I have to warn you, the numbers are ugly:

** 13th in the NL in runs scored (208).

** 14th in the NL in team batting average (.236).

** 15th in the NL in OPS (.667).

** Dead last in the NL in total hits (420). Ouch.

** Dead last in the NL in total bases (632). Major ouch.

** They have the 2nd most strike outs in the NL with 433. That one, for some reason, just pains me more than the others. Like the kind of pain that you call 9-1-1 for.

"9-1-1. What's your emergency?"

"I'm having severe chest pains. It's hard to breathe."

"Ma'am, I have to ask this, are you watching the Pirates game?"

"What!? I have a really deep, sharp pain in my chest!"

"Yes, ma'am. I know. But I see that Lyle Overbay just whiffed for the 35th time and I have to ask if you were watching the Buccos game. We've had an on-slaught of calls due to the Pirates propensity to strike out."

"Oh, well, I guess I'll just go get a beer and finish watching the game. Sorry to bother you."

"No problem, but you might want to take aspirin before every game. Have a good night."

And yet, with all the strike outs and wildly variable hitting, the Pirates are only minus one in run differential and are becoming a tough team to beat, because of the pitching. Check out these wonderful numbers:

** Kevin Correia -- tops in MLB with wins with eight.

** Charlie Morton -- fourth best ERA in the NL at 2.51

** Joel Hanrahan -- sixth in the NL in saves with 14.

** Fifth in overall Team ERA at 3.45.

** 28 Legit Quality Starts from Correia, Maholm, Morton, McDonald and Karstens (by my count -- but your mileage may vary slightly.)

The quality of the pitching is a testament to Ray Searage, of whom we should all be penning folk songs and heroic odes. They are so much better than anybody expected and, I would guess, even Searage himself is probably surprised at how well they are performing.

Of course, the Pirates had a bad winning percentage through April and May last year (.403), then managed to go completely in the tank -- 6-20 in June, 9-16 in July, and 8-21 in August. A winning percentage of .287 has to be some kind of record, doesn't it? Just as my way of saying -- beware the dog days, kids.


[Photo credits: mysanantonio.com].

Pittsburgh Was Once a Baseball Town -- Can It Be One Again?

On Saturday night, I went to the Pirates game, a 6-2 win over the Detroit Tigers. Also, notably, it was a sell out, with the last 7,000 or so seats sold in walk-up traffic. Heck, I can't remember the last time I was at a sold out Pirates game. [Oh, wait, I can. It was opening day a couple of years ago, but before that, honestly, it had to be 1992 -- a late September game against the Mucking Fets at Three Rivers. I can actually picture my seats in the old concrete toilet on the third base side.]

The extraordinary drought since that 1992 season makes it easy to forget Pittsburgh's storied baseball history, perhaps the richest history you might find in a market this size, particularly when you factor in the amazing Negro League teams fielded by the Homestead Grays and the Pittsburgh Crawfords. Home to Honus Wagner. Site of the first World Series ever. Pie Traynor. Josh Gibson. And, of course, the great one, Roberto Clemente. It's a veritable murder's row of baseball luminaries.


But as much as baseball thrives on its past, it doesn't actually live in antiquity. After a while, the youngins' tire of hearing stories of the great 'We Are Family' team of my youth. They want heroes of their own, memories of their own. Of heroes and memories that build loyalty, we have lived in shameful want. Because of inept ownership, unwilling to spend money and seemingly unable to spend it wisely when they did open the purse strings, fans turned away out of frustration and boredom in equal parts. We justifiedly turned to other pursuits, other distractions; the Pirates were something to do if it was a give-away night, a fireworks night, or a particularly nice evening and it wasn't too inconvenient, and there wasn't a really good rerun of 'House' on.

As to the team itself? We all knew what to expect from the team -- more fire-sales of talent, inert and ineffectual skippers, more trades for a useless 'player to be named later,' more free-agency idiocy, and more signings of washed up locker room cancers. (Personally, I like my serving of locker room cancer served on a boat named Operation Shutdown.) Even on the rare occasion when things looked remotely optimistic, you could count on ownership to do something stupid.

No wonder this is a football town and a hockey town. The Steelers certainly did their part in worming their way into our hearts. Four Super Bowls in quick order will do that to a fanbase, and they managed to tread water, even during the leanest years in the 1980's. Then along came Mario and this became a rabid hockey town, too. The timing could not have been worse for, at the moment Mario was just starting his second date with Lord Stanley, the Pirates were falling into prosaic monotony.

What both of those teams give the fans consistently is hope. And hope, not bobbleheads or beach-towels, not fireworks or Steve Miller Band appearances, sells tickets.

Putting your faith in the post-1992 Pirates is not for the faint of heart, a bit like watching a slasher flick while nursing a case of food poisoning -- every moment is fraught with trepidation, watched through your fingers as you cover your eyes, and just when you think the worst of the nausea has passed, another wave of bilious queasiness crests.

Enter the 2011 Pirates. Right now, May of 2011, I sense a sea change in the mood around Pittsburgh these days. Sure, sure, the battling Buccos are two games under .500, but fans are starting to show just a bit of interest. You can almost smell it -- the faintest traces of hope. Perhaps applied obliquely, or just around the edges, but we are cautiously hopeful. Something just feels different.

The numbers only show part of the story -- their record is just two games better than they were at the same time last year; the team batting average is slightly improved (up to 24th from 29th); and slugging percentage is also moderately improved (up to 24th from 27th). The pitching, however, is much improved with the team ERA up to 15th (at 3.64) from dead last (at 5.00) in 2010. They have 25 quality starts in 46 games. If they continue at that pace, they would finish with upward of 95 quality starts over the season. Last year, they finished with just 71 quality starts all year. Wow.

You can't see it in the numbers, even though quality starts have been like hen's teeth around here, but it's something more than that. Watch a handful of games and something feels different and like pornography, I know it when I see it, sabremetrics be damned. I think a large part of it is the mindset of Clint Hurdle -- a refreshing combination of competence and charisma. His hitting, pitching and position coaches actually seem to, er, coach. So that's a start right there. He's instilled an aggressive mindset in his players. Last year, not one of the Pirates pitchers threw inside with any confidence. This year, they are taking ownership of the inside part of the plate. He has his guys running the basepaths like crazy, testing other teams constantly. Honestly, I saw a game last year, when the Buccos had a guy on 2nd base and he didn't score on a double. How is that even possible? What was he doing on 2nd base? Texting?

For the sake of argument, let's say that Hurdle is getting everything that you can get from the talent he has, that what we're seeing is the upper limit for this collection of players. And let's say he is consistent enough that the rest of the season plays out like it has so far -- that the Pirates neither improve appreciably, but neither do they decline. With a winning percentage of .478, that would amount to 77 wins for the season and I think the fans can live with that. Actually, I think the fans would be thrilled with that. Heck, if they go into the final series of the season with say, 75 wins, I think the town will rename Fort Duquesne for Hurdle (I like the sound of 'Fort Hurdle'), erect statues of Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen, and possibly elect Joel Hanrahan to the Mayor's office (actually, he might be an improvement.)

Not that 75 or 77 wins are the long term goals. But compared to what we saw of the Jim Tracy and John Russell eras, that is an epic improvement. More to the point, mightn't this be the season you could possibly point to and say, "that was the turning point." Dare we even hope for that?

In fairness, it must be pointed out that it is usually right around this time when management makes a tragically bone-headed move, but if Saturday night was any indication, I think the fans are ready -- ready to give these guys a chance. Hurdle's doing his job. McCutchen is doing his job. Kevin Correia is doing much more than any of us anticipated. So now? Now is the time that management has to find a way not to screw up a good thing -- the hope of Pirates fans is more fragile than an orchid, more delicate than a Ming vase.

Tread lightly, he who lives in hopes of increased attendance.


[McCutchen photo courtesy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; Hanrahan photo courtesy of Pittsburgh Tribune Review.]

The Pittsburgh Pirates: Playing Baseball Like They Care

But still -- it's not enough.

It would be nice to believe that grit and effort will get you through to the promised land with a bunch of has-beens, never-weres, and never-shoulda-beens because they just want it more than the other guys. What a wonderful world it would be if you could simply 'Braveheart' your way into the MLB playoffs.It would be grand if it were actually possible to just "win the whole fucking thing," as Tom Berenger says in 'Major League,' out of spite and sheer bull-headedness. But those are movies and it's a fantasy to believe that you can win a World Series (or even your division), just because you want it more. Sure, you need desire, will and resilience. You need guys who believe and who put in the effort necessary to win.

But you also need starting pitching, relief pitching and a shut-down closer. You need speed on the basepaths and power in the batters box. You need a bunch of guys who can actually, you know, hit a curveball.

And you need a skipper to pull it all together.

The Pirates have the last element, I believe. I believe Hurdle is a good manager. I believe he might even be a great one. At the very least, he's interesting, awake, seems to give a shit, is willing to take some chances and, also, is a guy who stressed fundamentals in spring training. These are all good things. Hurdle is a monumental improvement over John Russell. Hurdle is both engaged and engaging; Russell was comatose. On his best days.

But, really, without a significant improvement in on-field talent, how many wins can a manager account for? I'm saying seven, maybe 10 at the outside. If you put Hurdle in the Pirates dugout last year, that roster might could have won 64 games (maybe 67) rather than 57. They were a bad team. That fact was exacerbated by the presence of a bad manager.

But, aside from the coaching improvement how much different, how much better are these guys? Let's look at the bats first, then the arms.

This is last season's opening day line up: 1. Aki Iwamura (2B), 2. Andrew McCutchen (CF), 3. Garrett Jones (RF), 4. Ryan Doumit (C), 5. Lastings Milledge (LF), 6. Jeff Clement (1B), 7. Andy LaRoche (3B), 8. Pitcher (in this case, Zach Duke and yes, Russell had so little confidence in his short-stop that he had him batting 9th), 9. Ronnie Cedeno (SS).

Of course, even the inert Russell had the sense to sit Iwamura (and his knee-brace, and his .182 batting average. Face of futility = Iwamura) after a while and bring up guys like Alvarez and Tabata. But even with those mid-season moves, the Pirates ranked 29th in runs, 29th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging percentage.

This year's batting order is much improved if for no other reason than the absence of Iwamura. The 2011 opening day batting order looked like this: 1. Jose Tabata (LF), 2. Neil Walker (2B), 3. McCutchen (CF), 4. Lyle Overbay (1B), 5. Pedro Alvarez, 6. Doumit (C), 7. Jones (RF), 8. Cedeno (SS), 9. Pitcher (in this case, Kevin Correia).

This year's line up should rank much higher in all categories. But even though they are better, are they that much better? Today, they are 29th in run, 25th in batting average, 26th in slugging percentage, and 24th in on-base percentage (that increase might be due solely to the great play of Tabata in the lead-off spot.) Hurdle thought they'd be better than those stats. Heck, we all did. Not that we expected the 1933 Pittsburgh Crawfords mind you, but we did expect to see more lively bats and more runs. The bats may yet turn a corner, crack into the middle percentages for runs scored and on-base percentages. Let's hope so.

Even if the bats wake up, even if Alvarez can actually hit a breaking ball once in a lunar cycle, will it make that much of a difference in terms of record? Unless Clint Hurdle can go out and pitch, how many more wins can we expect him to generate?

Kevin Correia, with his career 4.52 era is expected to anchor the Bucco rotation. Well, he's an improvement over having Zach Duke as your staff 'ace,' and, except for his last outing against the Brewers, he's looked pretty good, which is to say, he'd be a great acquisition if he were your #3 or #4 pitcher. That would be fantastic. That he is the staff ace, tells you something about the rest of the rotation.

Paul Maholm. Well, enough said, enough seen, enough. Enough of Paul Maholm.

The best thing that may have happened to the Pirates is an injury to Ross Ohlendorf. Journos who were at spring training report that Karstens looked better than Ohlendorf anyway, so Ohlendorf v. Karstens in the line-up? What's the difference? It's just an arm to put out there every five days and probably not an arm that should be in an MLB uniform, other than as a long-reliever anyway.

The interesting guys are the four and five pitchers: Charlie Morton and James McDonald. Folks seem to be excited about the potential of both of these guys. And even though I haven't quite seen what those folks are seeing, I'm going to reserve judgment on both of Morton and McDonald until I see more from them.

So, to break down the starting pitching: we have two guys we know are pretty bad but show just enough that the team doesn't quite want to give up on them (Maholm and Ohlendorf); one guy we know is pretty good -- not great, but good (Correia); two guys who are question marks (McDonald and Morton); and one guy who is a long-reliever dressed up as a starter (Karstens).

I think Hurdle will get everything he can from these guys. I love the way his staff handles base-running. I love the aggressive attitude. But when you have to rely on guys like Maholm and Meek, Crotta and Karstens (I assume he'll pitch in Ohlendorf's absence?), the team would have to score upwards of eight runs every night.

On opening day, I predicted 64 wins, which would be a seven game improvement over last year's finish. Even though they've hit a pretty rough patch in the past week, I'm going to upgrade that to 66 wins, just based on my opinion of Hurdle and what I've seen from Tabata as a lead off man. Is that enough improvement for Pittsburgh fans? What kind of record would satisfy you?