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5 Reasons the Jets Will Win the AFC Championship

Don't worry, yinzers -- I'm doing the Top 5 Reasons the Steelers Will Win tomorrow, but today, here are some reasons Jets fans have to be confident:

1. Rex Ryan. Say what you will, let loose all the foot fetish puns in your arsenal and make all the fat jokes you want (Lord knows I made my fair share of fat jokes at Charlie Weis’ expense), but this guy is a great coach. He somehow handles, juggles, manages or whatever you want to call it, an inordinate number of huge personalities on the Jets roster and he does it in the Circus Maximus known as the New York media. His players have undisciplined mouths, but they are disciplined on the field. Go figure. And I know that chafes a lot of folks out there -- Brady, Belichick, and at least half of the talking heads -- but it works.

Consider this, from the miracle of Super Bowl III until Big Rex’s arrival in the Big Apple, the Jets had missed the playoffs 29 times and played in just two conference championship games. Just TWO. Suddenly, they're in the Final Four in back to back seasons.

And it's no fluke. It’s not simply Ryan's bluster or freakish ability to manage personnel, it is because he also happens to excel at scouting and scheming. Last week, his defensive gameplan stymied the great and wondrous Tom Brady throughout the game. The Jets managed to bring heat, sacking Brady five times and hitting him seven more times, but they covered his receivers to the point of outfoxing Brady. There was one play late in the game where Brady dropped back and looked for a receiver for about eight or nine seconds before throwing the ball away in disgust. That's what Ryan's scheme was designed to do, but he does have the luxury of having the personnel downfield who can cover like stink on a skunk. Which brings me to

2. Darrelle Revis. If any corner in the league can shut down The Flash, Mike Wallace, this is the guy. The Jets lead the league in the lowest percentage of passes completed, with opposing QB’s completing just 50.7% of their attempts per game. Revis Island is a big reason why. He takes away the opposition’s biggest downfield threat, leaving Antonio Cromartie on the other side of the field to handle the secondary receiver. Let’s face it, Wallace has been able to simply outrun just about everybody in the NFL, but I’m not sure that he can just run away from Revis.

Who cares that Revis doesn't have any interceptions this year? Quarterbacks rarely throw to his side of the field anymore and his nearly flawless coverage allows his teammates to reap the fruit from the turnover tree. It all works out in the end. The Jets picked off Tom Brady for the first time since, god, it felt like since the George W. Bush administration (actually the Ravens picked him off twice in October.) It is notable, even, that Brady threw only five picks all year but three of them against the Jets. The week before that, this same defensive secondary shut down the world’s greatest living quarterback, Peyton Manning, and basically erased Reggie Wayne from the game. Its like he wasn't even there. I believe this is the best corner tandem in the NFL.

3. Brad Smith. To me, the difference in the December 19th which the Jets won 22-17 was the opening kick off return for a touchdown. In fact, I wrote a post about special teams miscues and how they come back to bite you in the ass like a hungry grizzly bear every time.

Last week, Baltimore's Lardarius Webb returned two kicks and two punts, for a total of 96 yards. And, not that our friends in Baltimore would ever let us forget, one of those punt returns was a touchdown save for a (correct) holding call, which would add another 29 yards to his totals. If you're counting at home, that's 125 yards on four returns, or 31.25 yards per return. Oy.

The combination of the Steelers specious special teams coverage units with the Jets Smith (who has two touchdowns this year and averages 28.64 yards per kick return) scares the bejeezus out of me. The Jets best chance of winning may be to win the special teams battle, give Sanchez and Co. a short field, or just score on a kick or punt return. Smith was inactive with a groin injury for the New England game, but I think he's playing this Sunday night. Even if he doesn't go, they'll send Antonio Cromartie back there and he's no return slouch, himself.

4. Santonio Holmes. No, it's not his deep and wide-ranging knowledge of the Steelers defense that scares me, it's his ability to make ridiculous plays at crunch-time. Oh, sure, he'll drop a ton of passes (and I'll be damned if I can find that stat anywhere; damn you internet!), but he can make the catches that make you say, 'no effing way!' The easy ones? Not so much. But if time is ticking away and Sanchez launches the ball to a ridiculous spot nobody can get to, 'Tone will get to it. That could be a tipping point.

5. D’Brickshaw Ferguson, Matt Slauson, Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Wayne Hunter. This would be an even more compelling reason, had the Jets not lost line stalwart Damien Woodey to an achilles injury, but still, this is an impressive front five. The Jets averaged 148.4 rushing yards per game (5th) and ran for 2,374 yards total (4th). They allowed only 28 quarterback sacks (8th) all year. In the playoffs, they've rushed for nearly identical numbers - averaging 144.5 yards per game -- and have allowed just one sack in two games.

A big part of the reason that the Jets have advanced this far is that they've won this battle by an overwhelming margin -- keeping Sanchez upright and unhurried. He may not be a seasoned vet and he certainly has his detractors, but he's playing his best football right now. With enough time and good passing lanes, he can beat any team.

Tomorrow, five reasons that the Steelers will win. For now, I've managed to psych myself into a harried state of anxiety that has morphed into actual heart palpitations. Nice work on my part. Yeah.

Serenity Prayer for the AFC Championship

Chief (or God, whatevs),

Grant me the serenity to make it through this week's game without throwing anything or actually physically injuring myself. (You know what I'm talking about. January, 2006 ... Indianapolis ... I don't think I need to go on.) Grant me the courage and grace to wish the Jets well should they outplay my Steelers. And grant me the wisdom to take a xanax after the game Sunday night so that I can get some sleep.

Truly, I am trying to go into this game with a sense of perspective.

Back in August, did anybody seriously expect the Steelers to even be playing in the AFC Championship game? Be honest, now. Nobody expected this [except Peter King, who predicted a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl.]

But most of SteelerNation wisely lowered our expectations, given that the Steelers were coming off a heinous 2009 season with the defense looking old, pliable, to be brutally honest, fair to middling. We thought the playoffs might be out of reach, given that the team was heading into the 2010 season without Pig Ben for the first four games, with Santonio Holmes gone to the Jets (of all freaking places), with Willie Colon lost for the season before the pre-season even started. Think back to those days when it was hot, rather than a sheet of ice outside and who among us thought they could win even 10 games? Personally, I figured it would be another disappointing 9-7 year.

The fact that the Steelers are playing in this game is gravy and I will do my best to be mindful of that Sunday night, despite the temptation to get swept up in the emotion of the thing.

That the Steelers are not only playing in this game, but hosting it? Well, that's some Top Chef worthy gravy on top of gravy.

Hosting this game is an absolute good. No matter the outcome.

I heard on the radio yesterday that the Winter Classic brought $22 or $23 million in revenue into the city. Last year, when the Steelers missed the playoffs altogether, the Trib reported that losing just one game was a loss of about $18 million in income. Anecdotally, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see how good it is for the city. Go down to the Strip District on Saturday morning and just try to find a parking space anywhere closer than the 31st Street Bridge. It's not just revenue from Polamalu jerseys, Terrible Towels and black and gold t-shirts that read, "Drink Up Yinz Bitches" -- it's hotels, restaurants, bars, etc., and I remain convinced that supermarkets and beer distributors see an uptick in sales, as people load up with game day fixins'. Bartenders and waitresses all over Western Pennsylvania rejoice!

As to the opposition, well, first a big, big thank you to Mark Sanchez and Company for sparing us all from a Steelers trip to Foxboro.

Next, let me run down the list of Jets players I hate ... um ... Surely there are some. Wait, I'm sure there's somebody, one player, per my friend Smiley:

"Antonio Cromartie stomped on The Towel when he ran out of the tunnel before kickoff of the Chargers playoff game I went to two years ago. Welcome back to Pittsburgh, Antonio. The Towel never forgets."

So there's that. One must never, ever disrespect the Towel. But that's only one player, a woefully low percentage of players for whom I harbor any enmity compared to say, the Patriots or my historical pantheon of hatred for the Cowboys and the Raiders.

Plus, I was a big Darrelle Revis fan back when he played for Pitt, so if we're being honest here, I would root FOR the Jets over a good number of possible AFC opponents. Hate the Jets? Nah. Not really.

What about Rex Ryan, you say? It's true that many (maybe most) of my friends have had enough of the Sexy Rex Ryan show, but I love Rex. The guy is funny, he's entertaining, he seems to be really, very much himself and that's refreshing. Last year, going into a game with the Colts, he said, "We're going to start with the injury report. Manning, Clark, Addai, Reggie Wayne, Freeney, Mathis, Brackett. ... All those guys will not play. Tom Moore, Howard Mudd and John Teerlink should get more extended Christmas break, it says here. Oh, hold up. That was my wish list for Santa Claus."

This year, before a game with the Browns, Rex showed up in a wig and Browns cap, mocking his brother Rob, the Browns defensive coordinator. I swear, I watched it every time they ran it on SportsCenter and laughed my ass off every time.

But it's not all bluster and trash-talk. After his team went out and got their asses soundly beaten (45-3) by the New England Patriots in prime-time about a month ago, Ryan took the heat off his guys, saying that the loss was on him, that Bill Belichick outcoached, "I came in here to kick his butt and he kicked mine." And even after the Jets stunning upset of the Pats on Sunday night, Ryan said that Belichick still outcoached him, but that his players, Ryan's players, outplayed the Pats. Nice. Take credit for the losses, give credit for the wins. I'm not quite sure why people dislike this guy. Seriously.

So, I am going to do my best to remain calm, keep things in perspective. It's a football game, after all. One I never expected the Steelers to be in, one I never expected the city to benefit from hosting, so I'm going to try to remind myself of all of the above, if things start to run off the rails sometime around 8:00 on Sunday night.

All bets are off, however, if the Steelers give up a special teams touchdown.

My Strange Infatuation with Sexy Rex Ryan

From True/Slant on January 18, 2010

Thank You, Rex Ryan.

Up until 5:00 est on Sunday, the divisional round of the NFL playoffs was about as much fun as all the snow shoveling I’ve done in the past month.

Enter the New York Jets.

As much as I enjoyed watching the Packers and the Cardinals break the scoreboard last week, I love watching good defense. And the Jets defense is fun. The Jets are riding high on their top-notch, risky, blitzing, pounding defense. Nursing a 10 point lead, Rex Ryan never reverted to the dreaded prevent defense. He trusted his players to make plays. They did. Sometimes blitzed and brought six guys. Sometimes they dropped everybody and rushed only three guys. When Phillip Rivers punched, the Jets D counter-punched. They bobbed and weaved and did a rope-a-dope. But they never went into a shell. They were never just reactive. That defense was pro-active every moment it was on the field. They knew that a comfortable Phillip Rivers eats defenses alive. So they never let him get comfortable. LaDainian Tomlinson was a non-factor (mostly sitting on the bench looking sad by the end) and Rivers never got in a groove. Score one for the Jets defense. Score one for smart risk-taking.

It’s so handy for a sportswriter when a team reflects their coach. It’s a great little meme to reach for. But this team really does reflect Ryan. The Jets have had some decent teams over the years, but they haven’t had this much swagger since Joe Namath was running the offense.

Say what you want about Rex Ryan (and feel free to insert fat joke here), but he’s awakened a team turned inert by the Mangenius, a franchise routinely booed by their own fans at the draft. He’s taken that team the whole way to the AFC Championship game.

So, yeah, he’s big and fat. He’s loud and obnoxious, too. Some don’t care for his style, but I do. I’m so sick of watching taciturn coaches grunt answers like pre-pubescent boys at the dinner table. Do they really think the media is the enemy? That they can somehow lose a game on the dais, rather than on the sidelines? Yes, I am looking at you Evil Hoodie. How’s that whole cloak and dagger routine working for ya these days? Thought so.

But it’s not just Evil Hoodie. The pubescent boy speak afflicts much of the league.

Rex Ryan is good for the media. He seems to actually enjoy the give and take. But more importantly, Ryan is good for the Jets. I didn’t want to like him. I really didn’t. But I can’t help myself. That defense and his pounding running game won me over, because I admit it, I kick it old school like that.

But how’d we all end up here? The Jets versus the Colts? A rematch of Super Bowl III in the 2010 AFC Championship Game. Really?

Back on Christmas morning, you’ll remember, the Jets were left for dead on the side of the road, with a record of 7-7 and just coming off a stinking loss versus the Falcons. Even Ryan himself said their playoff hopes were nil. Then the Colts gave up, gave in, yanked their starters and didn’t really try much during a week 16 Sunday night game. They spit the proverbial bit, as it were.

Oh, there was a tremendous hue and cry from the Colts fans, but the Colts coaches and players rationalized it — they were protecting Manning and Clark and Wayne, et al. There were more important games ahead.

But we all knew it was a bad omen. The Colts opened this Pandora’s Box and let loose the Jets on the playoff picture.

To their credit, the Jets run the ball down the other teams throat. They take away the deep pass and pressure the QB. They make offenses look awkward. And Mark Sanchez (cliche alert) is better than just a game manager: He makes just a few plays, but he seems to have a knack for making them at key moments. It’s a good sign for the long-term future health of the Jets franchise, to say nothing of the jubilation going on at the moment.

If the Colts lose to the Jets this Sunday, that would be a delicious irony, another handy literary illusion to reach for. But even if the Jets magical run ends in Indianapolis, without the tidy greek-tragedy bookend, it sure has been a fun ride.