5 Reasons the Jets Will Win the AFC Championship

Don't worry, yinzers -- I'm doing the Top 5 Reasons the Steelers Will Win tomorrow, but today, here are some reasons Jets fans have to be confident:

1. Rex Ryan. Say what you will, let loose all the foot fetish puns in your arsenal and make all the fat jokes you want (Lord knows I made my fair share of fat jokes at Charlie Weis’ expense), but this guy is a great coach. He somehow handles, juggles, manages or whatever you want to call it, an inordinate number of huge personalities on the Jets roster and he does it in the Circus Maximus known as the New York media. His players have undisciplined mouths, but they are disciplined on the field. Go figure. And I know that chafes a lot of folks out there -- Brady, Belichick, and at least half of the talking heads -- but it works.

Consider this, from the miracle of Super Bowl III until Big Rex’s arrival in the Big Apple, the Jets had missed the playoffs 29 times and played in just two conference championship games. Just TWO. Suddenly, they're in the Final Four in back to back seasons.

And it's no fluke. It’s not simply Ryan's bluster or freakish ability to manage personnel, it is because he also happens to excel at scouting and scheming. Last week, his defensive gameplan stymied the great and wondrous Tom Brady throughout the game. The Jets managed to bring heat, sacking Brady five times and hitting him seven more times, but they covered his receivers to the point of outfoxing Brady. There was one play late in the game where Brady dropped back and looked for a receiver for about eight or nine seconds before throwing the ball away in disgust. That's what Ryan's scheme was designed to do, but he does have the luxury of having the personnel downfield who can cover like stink on a skunk. Which brings me to

2. Darrelle Revis. If any corner in the league can shut down The Flash, Mike Wallace, this is the guy. The Jets lead the league in the lowest percentage of passes completed, with opposing QB’s completing just 50.7% of their attempts per game. Revis Island is a big reason why. He takes away the opposition’s biggest downfield threat, leaving Antonio Cromartie on the other side of the field to handle the secondary receiver. Let’s face it, Wallace has been able to simply outrun just about everybody in the NFL, but I’m not sure that he can just run away from Revis.

Who cares that Revis doesn't have any interceptions this year? Quarterbacks rarely throw to his side of the field anymore and his nearly flawless coverage allows his teammates to reap the fruit from the turnover tree. It all works out in the end. The Jets picked off Tom Brady for the first time since, god, it felt like since the George W. Bush administration (actually the Ravens picked him off twice in October.) It is notable, even, that Brady threw only five picks all year but three of them against the Jets. The week before that, this same defensive secondary shut down the world’s greatest living quarterback, Peyton Manning, and basically erased Reggie Wayne from the game. Its like he wasn't even there. I believe this is the best corner tandem in the NFL.

3. Brad Smith. To me, the difference in the December 19th which the Jets won 22-17 was the opening kick off return for a touchdown. In fact, I wrote a post about special teams miscues and how they come back to bite you in the ass like a hungry grizzly bear every time.

Last week, Baltimore's Lardarius Webb returned two kicks and two punts, for a total of 96 yards. And, not that our friends in Baltimore would ever let us forget, one of those punt returns was a touchdown save for a (correct) holding call, which would add another 29 yards to his totals. If you're counting at home, that's 125 yards on four returns, or 31.25 yards per return. Oy.

The combination of the Steelers specious special teams coverage units with the Jets Smith (who has two touchdowns this year and averages 28.64 yards per kick return) scares the bejeezus out of me. The Jets best chance of winning may be to win the special teams battle, give Sanchez and Co. a short field, or just score on a kick or punt return. Smith was inactive with a groin injury for the New England game, but I think he's playing this Sunday night. Even if he doesn't go, they'll send Antonio Cromartie back there and he's no return slouch, himself.

4. Santonio Holmes. No, it's not his deep and wide-ranging knowledge of the Steelers defense that scares me, it's his ability to make ridiculous plays at crunch-time. Oh, sure, he'll drop a ton of passes (and I'll be damned if I can find that stat anywhere; damn you internet!), but he can make the catches that make you say, 'no effing way!' The easy ones? Not so much. But if time is ticking away and Sanchez launches the ball to a ridiculous spot nobody can get to, 'Tone will get to it. That could be a tipping point.

5. D’Brickshaw Ferguson, Matt Slauson, Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Wayne Hunter. This would be an even more compelling reason, had the Jets not lost line stalwart Damien Woodey to an achilles injury, but still, this is an impressive front five. The Jets averaged 148.4 rushing yards per game (5th) and ran for 2,374 yards total (4th). They allowed only 28 quarterback sacks (8th) all year. In the playoffs, they've rushed for nearly identical numbers - averaging 144.5 yards per game -- and have allowed just one sack in two games.

A big part of the reason that the Jets have advanced this far is that they've won this battle by an overwhelming margin -- keeping Sanchez upright and unhurried. He may not be a seasoned vet and he certainly has his detractors, but he's playing his best football right now. With enough time and good passing lanes, he can beat any team.

Tomorrow, five reasons that the Steelers will win. For now, I've managed to psych myself into a harried state of anxiety that has morphed into actual heart palpitations. Nice work on my part. Yeah.

Woman on the Offensive Line Plays Last Football Game

From True/Slant on June 30, 2009


Rhonda Donahoo told me this wasn’t the way she wanted to end her football career. She had played the 2009 season against her doctor’s wishes, having already pushed her body past reasonable limits, so she knew the Pittsburgh Passion’s 27-17 loss at the D.C. Divas marked her final game in uniform. The playoff loss was just the third loss for this full-contact women’s football team in as many seasons, during the course of which they compiled an overall record of 27-3. The Divas advanced and will host the Boston Militia in the eastern conference championship game on July 11th, the winner of which will play in the IWFL (Independent Women’s Football League) Championship game in Austin, Texas on July 25th.

But Pittsburgh’s Rhonda Donahoo can put her shoulder pads in mothballs and place her banged up helmet on the mantle. She played her six year career on the offensive line, where bodies take and dish out some of the fiercest punishment on a football field and the endeavor has taken its toll.

There at the very beginning, Donahoo is one of the 11 active players who remain from that original 2003 Pittsburgh Passion roster. Back then, the team was affiliated with a different league, then the NWFA and these women, volunteer football players, raised money to get the team up and running (and continue to cultivate sponsors and fund-raise to this day). They were there for the first practice, the first scrimmage and the first game. They played through growing pains and rough years, when they were all really just figuring out how to play organized football. They’ve seen coaches come and go and have called four different Pittsburgh area fields their home turf.

In 2007, the squad largely reflected that original roster and, on a muggy July night in Nashville, they won the NWFA championship. Donahoo played that game with one knee sort of taped and banded into place — a jerry-rigged invention of a creative training staff catering to her desire to finish out the run on the field. One recent evening, she sat down with me and recounted the litany of injuries, but there were so many, I can’t remember them all and I’ve certainly forgotten some of the details. Following the 2007 championship, Donahoo hobbled into the sunset and underwent multiple surgeries. She was laid up for months. She knew she could never play football again, but hoped to resume some normal activities, like taking a spin on a bicycle, or just going for a long, aimless walk.

In 2008, the team switched leagues (from the NWFA to the IWFL) while Donahoo rehabbed and checked the scores; she just couldn’t bring herself to sit in the stands and watch. The Passion were undefeated through the regular season, but lost in the 2008 Eastern Conference Championship game in Chicago. Donahoo decided to give playing one more shot, to try to squeeze one more season out of her knees and ankles.

So she returned to the team in the winter of 2009, started every game at guard and was named an alternate to the IWFL all-star squad. A little over two weeks ago, with a playoff berth on the line, Donahoo played her thankless role on the offensive line, as the Passion beat the New York Sharks in an overtime thriller to end the regular season. With that, she had one more shot at a championship.

Of course, playoff seeding being what it is, Pittsburgh’s first test was to beat the D.C. Divas, their long time rival and the only team which had beaten them in 2009. Still, the team felt, or maybe they hoped, their wild victory in New York would be the springboard to another championship run, the last chance for Donahoo and some of the other original players to win a second title before focusing their energies on other endeavors. As Pittsburgh Steelers Hall of Fame coach Chuck Noll said, at some point, you have to get on with your life’s work.

The June 27th playoff game in suburban D.C. was one of missed opportunities for the Passion. With the teams slugging out a scoreless game through the 1st quarter, on the sidelines, I felt like Pittsburgh was winning the battle of attrition, when all of a sudden, D.C. was threatening to score from the Pittsburgh 10. But the Pittsburgh defense stiffened, led by Jen Dulski who hammered Diva quarterback Allyson Hamlin on a blitz, then made another tackle for no gain on a run. The ball went over on downs, but the Passion turned it right back over with a fumble. The Divas punched it in easily. It was just that kind of a night — one step forward, two steps back.

Pittsburgh hung in there, but made mistakes at key moments, while the Divas avoided big mistakes. After the Passion went up 10-7 early in the 3rd quarter on an Amanda Haeg scamper into the corner of the end zone, D.C. answered quickly, as Hamlin tossed a beauty of a fade route to Tara Stephenson for a touchdown. (I have to take a moment to point out that Hamlin and Stephenson run that fade pattern as well as any quarterback-wide out combination I’ve seen at any level. For real.) From there, D.C. cruised, ensuring that there would be no shot at a second title for Donahoo and the Passion.

I’ve spent a couple of seasons around the team. I’ve gotten to know them as football players and as people, too. There are always a handful of veterans threatening to retire; I’ve learned that sometimes they mean it and sometimes they don’t. But this year I get the eerie feeling a lot of these players have played their last games in black and gold.

Seasons end and players part ways, leaving behind team workouts, film sessions, practices, travel days and game day routines. The transition is always tough, but for returning players, the sting of cleaning out their lockers is balanced by the promise of another season still to come; fall workouts will be upon them before they know it. For those who have played their last game in uniform, the sense of loss can be overwhelming.

Just moments after the horn sounded the end of the game, the Pittsburgh players huddled together on the field and Donahoo knelt a few yards behind them, flanked by two teammates. I don’t know if she was felled by physical pain, exhaustion, overwhelming emotion, or, most likely, some combination of the three. Eventually, she pulled off her shoulder pads, pulled herself up, and joined her teammates. For the last time on a football field.

Later that night, over beers, she teared up when we talked about it being the end of the line. And then, as she always has, she became the life of the party, goofing off with total strangers in the suburban DC hotel bar, dancing, raising a ruckus and entertaining her teammates. Maybe that was the last time, too.