5 Reasons the Jets Will Win the AFC Championship

Don't worry, yinzers -- I'm doing the Top 5 Reasons the Steelers Will Win tomorrow, but today, here are some reasons Jets fans have to be confident:

1. Rex Ryan. Say what you will, let loose all the foot fetish puns in your arsenal and make all the fat jokes you want (Lord knows I made my fair share of fat jokes at Charlie Weis’ expense), but this guy is a great coach. He somehow handles, juggles, manages or whatever you want to call it, an inordinate number of huge personalities on the Jets roster and he does it in the Circus Maximus known as the New York media. His players have undisciplined mouths, but they are disciplined on the field. Go figure. And I know that chafes a lot of folks out there -- Brady, Belichick, and at least half of the talking heads -- but it works.

Consider this, from the miracle of Super Bowl III until Big Rex’s arrival in the Big Apple, the Jets had missed the playoffs 29 times and played in just two conference championship games. Just TWO. Suddenly, they're in the Final Four in back to back seasons.

And it's no fluke. It’s not simply Ryan's bluster or freakish ability to manage personnel, it is because he also happens to excel at scouting and scheming. Last week, his defensive gameplan stymied the great and wondrous Tom Brady throughout the game. The Jets managed to bring heat, sacking Brady five times and hitting him seven more times, but they covered his receivers to the point of outfoxing Brady. There was one play late in the game where Brady dropped back and looked for a receiver for about eight or nine seconds before throwing the ball away in disgust. That's what Ryan's scheme was designed to do, but he does have the luxury of having the personnel downfield who can cover like stink on a skunk. Which brings me to

2. Darrelle Revis. If any corner in the league can shut down The Flash, Mike Wallace, this is the guy. The Jets lead the league in the lowest percentage of passes completed, with opposing QB’s completing just 50.7% of their attempts per game. Revis Island is a big reason why. He takes away the opposition’s biggest downfield threat, leaving Antonio Cromartie on the other side of the field to handle the secondary receiver. Let’s face it, Wallace has been able to simply outrun just about everybody in the NFL, but I’m not sure that he can just run away from Revis.

Who cares that Revis doesn't have any interceptions this year? Quarterbacks rarely throw to his side of the field anymore and his nearly flawless coverage allows his teammates to reap the fruit from the turnover tree. It all works out in the end. The Jets picked off Tom Brady for the first time since, god, it felt like since the George W. Bush administration (actually the Ravens picked him off twice in October.) It is notable, even, that Brady threw only five picks all year but three of them against the Jets. The week before that, this same defensive secondary shut down the world’s greatest living quarterback, Peyton Manning, and basically erased Reggie Wayne from the game. Its like he wasn't even there. I believe this is the best corner tandem in the NFL.

3. Brad Smith. To me, the difference in the December 19th which the Jets won 22-17 was the opening kick off return for a touchdown. In fact, I wrote a post about special teams miscues and how they come back to bite you in the ass like a hungry grizzly bear every time.

Last week, Baltimore's Lardarius Webb returned two kicks and two punts, for a total of 96 yards. And, not that our friends in Baltimore would ever let us forget, one of those punt returns was a touchdown save for a (correct) holding call, which would add another 29 yards to his totals. If you're counting at home, that's 125 yards on four returns, or 31.25 yards per return. Oy.

The combination of the Steelers specious special teams coverage units with the Jets Smith (who has two touchdowns this year and averages 28.64 yards per kick return) scares the bejeezus out of me. The Jets best chance of winning may be to win the special teams battle, give Sanchez and Co. a short field, or just score on a kick or punt return. Smith was inactive with a groin injury for the New England game, but I think he's playing this Sunday night. Even if he doesn't go, they'll send Antonio Cromartie back there and he's no return slouch, himself.

4. Santonio Holmes. No, it's not his deep and wide-ranging knowledge of the Steelers defense that scares me, it's his ability to make ridiculous plays at crunch-time. Oh, sure, he'll drop a ton of passes (and I'll be damned if I can find that stat anywhere; damn you internet!), but he can make the catches that make you say, 'no effing way!' The easy ones? Not so much. But if time is ticking away and Sanchez launches the ball to a ridiculous spot nobody can get to, 'Tone will get to it. That could be a tipping point.

5. D’Brickshaw Ferguson, Matt Slauson, Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Wayne Hunter. This would be an even more compelling reason, had the Jets not lost line stalwart Damien Woodey to an achilles injury, but still, this is an impressive front five. The Jets averaged 148.4 rushing yards per game (5th) and ran for 2,374 yards total (4th). They allowed only 28 quarterback sacks (8th) all year. In the playoffs, they've rushed for nearly identical numbers - averaging 144.5 yards per game -- and have allowed just one sack in two games.

A big part of the reason that the Jets have advanced this far is that they've won this battle by an overwhelming margin -- keeping Sanchez upright and unhurried. He may not be a seasoned vet and he certainly has his detractors, but he's playing his best football right now. With enough time and good passing lanes, he can beat any team.

Tomorrow, five reasons that the Steelers will win. For now, I've managed to psych myself into a harried state of anxiety that has morphed into actual heart palpitations. Nice work on my part. Yeah.

Special Teams Return to 2009 Form and Drag Rest of Team Down with Them

I am a believer in the church of the special teams. Yea verily, just as surely as many evangelicals believe in the certainty of the rapture, I believe that special teams touchdowns will come back to bit you in the ass. Hard. I believe that special teams are as important to a team's success as having a franchise quarterback, winning the turnover battle, and controlling the line of scrimmage. In some mystical karmic way, special teams points seem to carry more weight, more cache and special teams touchdowns are to regular touchdowns as dog years are to people years.

Exhibit A: San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives in no small part because of two early season losses: to the Chiefs by 21-14 - a game in which they gave up a punt return for a TD; and to the Seahawks by 27-20 - a game in which they gave up TWO kickoff returns for TDs. As things stand today, the Chargers are on the outside looking into the playoff picture.

Exhibit B: New York Giants. Who lost yesterday's thriller to the Eagles when they allowed DeSean Jackson to return a punt for a TD on the last play of the game. Brutal. The Giants still are hanging on to the last spot in the playoffs, but I have to wonder if they can get past the kick to the stomach that yesterday's loss was to win out in the last two weeks?

Exhibit C: Pittsburgh Steelers. The team won in Tennessee after Antonio Brown took the opening kickoff to the house. It was the only touchdown they scored all day. Then yesterday, they lost to the Jets after allowing Brad Smith to take the opening kickoff to the house. Coincidence? I don't think so.

You put your team behind the eight-ball when you allow a special teams touchdown. NFL teams are a combined 10-16 when giving up a special teams touchdown and, for some unknown reason, kick returns seem to do more damage that punt returns. In the 20 games with a kickoff returned for a touchdown in the NFL this year, the team with the KO TD has won 13 of those times, and lost just 7 times. Those are pretty much 2 to 1 odds that you'll win if you take a touchdown to the house.

Maybe it's just the letdown factor for the defense. If you're kicking off, either its the start of the game, the start of the half or you've just scored. So let's say your offense fights and claws and puts together a 80-something yard drive. It takes a lot of plays of 11 players doing their jobs, maybe a spectacular catch or two, or maybe a few tackle breaking runs. And all that work is negated on the ensuing kick. The hard work of that offensive touchdown is erased in about 3 seconds.

It's disheartening.

And it's no way to open a game. Particularly against a team like the Jets.

The Jets average just about 21 points per game and I'm not sure if the folks at Stats, Inc. adjust that for other scores - the Jets had another special teams TD and a TD on an interception return coming into this game. Regardless, the Jets are hardly the Patriots prolific offense, so you can't help a team score, particularly one that had been shut out earlier this year by the Packers and had scored just nine points in the last two weeks. Sure, they were fighting for their playoff lives, but still, this Jets team was there for the taking.

Even with the special teams miscue, and even with a defense that cannot make any big plays without Troy on the field (talk about disheartening - just one sack, just one tackle for a loss and only two QB hits), the Steelers were down by just 3 points and had the ball. (For more on the defense being just pedestrian without Troy, check out Gene Collier's great column.)

Why on earth was Mewelde Moore on the field on 1st and 10 from the Steelers 3? Moore is the best blitz protection back, so if you're gonna pass, I can see him being on the field. But at their own 3 yard line, I don't think the Steelers are going to pass there. And the Jets didn't think so either.

Every coach, every player has a chink in the armor, an achilles heel, not like Troy's injured achilles, but one in the Greek mythology sense. And I think that Bruce Arians' biggest flaw as a play caller is that he tries too hard to outsmart teams.

"It would be so stupid of me to run the ball around the corner with Mewelde Moore in this situation that nobody would expect it. Perfect! .... Oh. Crap."

It's a low percentage call in a situation where you cannot afford to lose yards, so what's the logic in handing the ball off to the smallest, weakest back on the roster and running something to the edges?

Why not hand the ball off to the guy who has 100 yards on the day and is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry? I've said it before and I'll say it again -- they drafted Rashard Mendenhall to be the man. They should give him the opportunity to be the man.

The kick off return for a touchdown, the safety -- those are the kinds of plays the Steelers have manufactured to win this season. With special teams reverting to last year's execrable form, and without the team MVP on the field, they couldn't get any of those plays, but rather watched helplessly while the Jets made a couple of big 'splash' plays in Tomlin-speak.

On the upside, the Steelers haven't lost a game to a bad team this year, unlike last season's five game skid that included losses to the bad stinky Chiefs, stinkier Raiders, and the stench that killed an entire region, a/k/a the Brady Quinn led Browns. So, they got that going for them. Yesterday's loss was not one of those terrible, embarrassing losses, but still, it's a game that was there for the taking.

Special Teams Prayer Answered. Finally.

Some people worry about the deficit and some disingenuously worry about the deficit (and you know who you are); some people worry about H1N1, ebola or various other possible pandemics; some worry about helicopter parents and others are helicopter parents; some people fret about gas mileage and heating and cooling bills and, with training camp in full swing, a large percentage of Steelers Nation is concerned about the quarterback situation. Understandably so. I have even heard of a new breed of young mothers who fret about something called 'tummy time.' Whatever the hell that is.

Me? I don't worry about 'tummy time,' I worry about hang time, particularly speaking, the hangtime on kick offs. I worry about special teams. Only a special, pathetic sort of person spends the lion's share of football season wondering just when the special teams are going to screw the pooch, certain, deep in my heart of hearts, that they will. I torture myself with wild imaginings of all the various permutations and possibilities for special teams putridity. Fumbled punt returns, blown coverage, Jeff Reed standing statuesque as a returner blows by him, emboldened by the low angle and shortness of Reed's kick.

Yearly, I intoned, Why can't he kick off? Why can't they find somebody else to kick off for him!?

Then, this, courtesy of Steelers.com:

Sepulveda got a chance to kick off, and he showed himself to be quite accomplished at it. On four kickoffs, Sepulveda’s hang-times were 4.07, 3.93, 3.87 and 3.70. The 4.07 kick also carried 2 yards deep in the end zone, and earlier in the evening, one of his mis-hits went 8 yards deep in the end zone.

In recent years, Reed's kick offs have been both short in time and short in length, a problem that I hope for his sake doesn't apply to the bedroom as well as the kick off tee. Not to belittle what he does. It's hard. (Somebody stop me.) At any rate, it takes a certain physical ability and also, a certain mental equanimity, to kick field goals in pressure packed situation on the sandbox they call Heinz Field. If it were easy, everybody would do it.

And yet, at the end of the day, the guy has two jobs. Just two. Kick field goals (at which he is tremendously adept) and kick off (at which he sucks.)

Consider the multitude of responsibilities other players have.

James Farrior calls complicated defenses, reads offenses, adjusts on the fly, and then, after all that, he has to fight through blockers, clog lanes and make tackles. Sometimes, he has to cover tight ends in pass patterns.

The quarterback, be it Ben, Double D or Leftwich, has similar responsibilities, only even more complicated. He's responsible, too, for getting the snap off in time, getting hand offs to the backs cleanly, dropping back with precise footwork, throwing timing patterns with perfect timing, shedding defensive linemen or blitzing linebackers.

Reed has to do two things and as good as he is at one of those things, he's equally as bad at the other one.

It started, almost innocently enough, back in 2001 before the arrival of the little hayseed with thunder thighs from North Carolina. (It isn't entirely Reed's fault.)

It was January, 2002. The Steelers were hosting the upstart Patriots in the AFC Championship game. (I cringed just typing that.) Thanks to a Troy Edwards penalty, the punt coverage unit gave up a touchdown return in the 1st quarter and the field goal unit allowed a blocked kick to be returned for a touchdown in the 3rd quarter and Evil Hoodie and the Patriots went on their reign of insolent terror.

It was a fluke, right. Just one of those wacky days when the ball bounces the wrong way. Friends claimed that the Steelers were still the better team and deserved to win. I thought it was an object lesson in the importance of special teams. I also thought that the Steelers would, themselves, see this as an object lesson in the importance of special teams.

Wrong.

Instead, they tortured us with shoddy, spotty special teams play. And it's been more of the same ever since. The 96 yard touchdown return against the Raiders in 2002 and the roughing the kicker call in Tennessee that ended that season. Dante Hall's 100 yard kickoff return in 2003. Last year's 97 yard touchdown in Kansas City. (What is it about the Steelers and the Chiefs? Are the Steelers spellbound, somehow dazzled by the bright red helmets, rendered unable to tackle KC kick off returners? I don't get it.)

Over the years we've cheered some wonderful wins and endured some painful losses. But every time the Steelers have a disappointing season, you can point to at least one game that the special teams blew.

Last year, the defense collapsed and we have no idea how that aged unit is going to perform this year. There are large, fat, slow, completely unknown and obtrusive question marks along the O Line, at quarterback, at running back, even at wide receiver. With so much promise, but so much that is tenuous, the very last thing the Steelers can afford to do is give up a game losing kickoff return for a touchdown. Or a momentum changing huge return that sets up a touchdown. They need help, luck and a little bit of magic. They need to be bold where they can be. This is the area. This is the time. Sepulveda is the guy.

One last thought, Mike Tomlin is taking all the Steelers to Canton to be there for Coach LeBeau's long-overdue induction into the Hall of Fame. It warmed my wee little Grinchy heart.