Showing posts with label green bay packers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label green bay packers. Show all posts

Monday, February 7, 2011

Packers Win XLV, Pittsburgh Sofas Still at Risk

Steelers fans are miserable now, furious that the Steelers lost Super Bowl XLV and while the Steelers did their part to spit the bit, the narrative that the Steelers lost it, implies that the Packers didn't win it, that they were just passive recipients of the Steelers noblesse oblige. It denies the Packers agency in their own victory and that's just not cool. So allow me, for a moment, to write about how the Packers went about winning the game.

The best defense on the field was in green and yellow, not black and gold.
They were opportunistic, they sensed the big moments and responded. And they forced some of Pittsburgh's mistakes.

Exhibit One. Nick Collins' pick six was forced by Green Bay pressure. Somebody, and I'm not sure who, hit Pig Ben's arm as he was releasing the ball. Mike Wallace had a step or two on his man and had Ben hit him, he might have been gone. Instead, because of the hit, the ball fluttered out like a lame, dying dodo bird into Collins' arms. He did the rest. Whoever it was who beat Chris Kemeoatu like a wet noodle to get to Pig Ben, deserves a ton of credit on that play.

Exhibit Two. I've crushed Mendenhall in the past for his fumbling problems and after a season that was happily devoid of many fumbles, it came back to bite him last night. Still, I'm not going to pin it all on Mendenhall. He had the ball high and tight; Clay Matthews made a great play to hit him right in his elbow and force the ball out. Not that somebody couldn't have blocked Matthews. Not that Mendenhall couldn't have been alert enough to shout out "Ball! Ball! Ball!" when the ball popped loose to alert his oblivious linemen, rather than laying there like startled mannequin. Sigh. But truly the fumble itself was at least 80% Matthews.

In short, the Packers defense scored and then set their offense up to score some more. That's not just Steelers screw ups -- that's Packers' agency.

The Packers offense pounced.
When your defense hands you gifts, as an offense it is incumbent upon you to unwrap those gifts, squeal with delight and model those gifts while parading around like one of the Housewives of Orange County parading around in her new boobs.

Rogers stuck his chest out and turned both Steelers turnovers into touchdowns. Not field goals, but touchdowns. After the Jarrett Bush interception, Rogers took over at his own 47. Four plays later, he hit Greg Jennings in the endzone. After the Mendenhall fumble, the Pack had the ball at their own 45. Eight plays later, Rogers hit Jennings for another touchdown. Despite a slew of his receivers dropping balls, Rogers stared down the Steelers defense and didn't blink.

Life Rule Applies to Football Too: Timing Is Everything.
Although I find it hard to blame Mendenhall for his fumble, the timing could not have been worse. The offense had clawed their way back to within four-points of the Packers, the defense had held four times through the 3rd quarter, and special teams had flip-flopped field position after the idiocy of the 52 yard field goal attempt. So with the team driving, with a second down and short at Green Bay's 33 yard line, it looked like they might even take the lead in the game and pull off a miracle.

Then somebody misses a block on Matthews, he forces the fumble and it was one of those moments that will always cause Steelers fans to feel sick and empty, while Wisconsinite will think back on that play with warn fuzzy feelings in their private parts. It was too much, finally, too much for the Steelers to overcome.Mistakes Are Magnified.
Somebody much smarter than I did a breakdown of turnover differential in Super Bowls. It is hard to win a regular season game when you've lost the turnover battle; in the Super Bowl, it is virtually impossible. Mistakes are magnified, they somehow take on a life of their own, they go viral, grow exponentially, until the weight of them crushes you, leaving dreams of glory squashed like gnat under Casey Hampton's butt. Teams that have won the turnover battle, even if it's just by one turnover, are 32-3 in the Super Bowl. Well, now I guess that's 33-3 for the team winning the turnover differential battle.

No More Rabbits Out of the Helmets.
All year, the Steelers have been a team that made a big play (or two) when they needed one. You can look through nearly all of their close wins this season and pick out just one or two plays that basically won the game for them.

Against the Falcons, it was Troy's amazing INT on the sidelines and Mendenhall's overtime dash.

Against the Bengals, it was James Harrison knocking the ball out of Jordan Shipley's grip to seal the victory.

Against the Ravens in Baltimore, it was Troy's amazing strip sack and Redman's great run through tacklers into the endzone for the winning score.

Against the Bengals the second time around, Troy's pick six did the job.

Against the Bills, Troy made an amazing interception (and they had some help from Stevie Johnson's drop).

Against the Ravens in the playoffs, Harrison went on a complete tear for two series in the 3rd quarter and then Pig Ben had his huge throw to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 18.

Against the Jets, Ike Taylor's strip fumble and Pig Ben hooking up, again, with Brown were the story of that game.

Just one or two plays. A big play from Pig Ben. A big play from James Harrison. Next thing you know, the Steelers have won. And they count on that magic from those three guys -- Troy and Harrison and Pig Ben. And a few others, no doubt, but primarily, those are the big three. Last night, they needed at least one of those three guys to make a transcendent play -- just one amazing, game turning play, the kind those players seem to always produce. Troy was nowhere to be found, with just three tackles, no quarterback hits, no sacks, no interceptions, no turnovers, not even any tackles for losses.

Harrison had a couple of plays, but he was unable to force a ball loose, pick off a pass, or get to the quarterback on a key third down.

Pig Ben threw some of the worst passes of his career (and probably wants the one back where he overthrew a wide open Mike Wallace, more than any other.) To his credit, Ben got the Steelers back into the game, was a huge part of the recovery team that dug them out of the mine shaft he had helped to put them in in the first place. During the two minute drill, such as it was, he morphed into Kordell Stewart, rather than his usual clutch self and it all fell apart.

And that, my friends, is what happens when the guys who make magic run out of fairy dust, are rendered human, frail and vulnerable by a team good enough and smart enough to withstand a few shots to the chin and midsection and keep on firing, a team capable of making some magical plays of its own.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for Winning Super Bowl XLV


Seriously, many congratulations to Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rogers, and that whole team, as well as Packers fans in Wisconsin and every where. It's a well deserved win. Enjoy it!

Is XLV the Last of the Small Market Match Ups?




Through all the hand wringing over the health of the league, vis-a-vis players versus owners, what about the health of the league just among the owners? In September, 2009, Per ProFootballTalk reported,
“Right now, we are subsidizing this market,” Jones said, according to Sean Jensen of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “It’s
unthinkable to think that you’ve got the market you got here — 3 ½
million people — and have teams like Kansas City and Green Bay
subsidizing the market. That will stop.

“That’s going to stop. That’s on its way out.”
Jones has said, basically, that he'd like to see both the salary cap and revenue sharing eliminated from the NFL. In Jerry World, it's all Jerry, all the time.

Take away revenue sharing and the salary cap? All of a sudden, the Green Bay Packers, one of the most legendary franchises in the history of football, become the Kansas City Royals. Meanwhile, the most decorated franchise in the entire league, the Pittsburgh Steelers, could end up as relevant as the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Take away the salary cap and revenue sharing and you've just turned football ... into baseball. Which means that an owner like Jerr'Jones could simply buy championships. Perhaps they could even play those championship games at his own Deathstar, a facility Pat Summerall appropriately referred to as Jerry Jones' "monument to himself."

World + the history of the NFL < Jerr'Jones.

What makes the league great is a Super Bowl like XLV because it means hope. Hope for any fan of any franchise, that his or her team will draft well, hire competent scouts and coaches, and make smart free agency moves. If all that works out, and you get a bit lucky, your team can end up here, in the Super Bowl. Dare I say it, its as close to a meritocracy as you'll find. That's the beauty of the NFL.

It wasn't all that long ago that the NFL was not the cash cow we know today. Back in the 1930's and 1940's, and even the 1950's, owners didn't make much profit. They made a decent buck, but nothing like the astronomical figures bandied about today. Back then, some teams considered it a good year if they broke even, most teams made profits in the single digits; two and three and four percent profit margins were common and ten percent profit was a ridiculous windfall. It wasn't until the 1960's that the sport really started to take off, to make some serious money. Commissioner Pete Rozzelle (rightly) convinced the owners that they would all make more money if the league in total was strong top to bottom, not just a few teams at the top. What that ushered in was opportunity. It's this opportunity, this genuine hope that every fan of just about every team has from draft day through training camp to the opening games, that makes the NFL great, that makes it must see TV.

If Jones (and a few other Richy Rich owners) have their way, the amazing, forward thinking structure of the NFL, pioneered by guys like Lamar Hunt, Wellington Mara and Pete Rozzelle can all be undone by greed gone wild. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Jerr'Jones isn't fit to hold Wellington Mara's spit cup.

The NFL works because you can have Super Bowl XLV, pitting Green Bay, Wisconsin (Population 101,000-ish) versus Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (urban population 300,000ish). So enjoy tonight's Super Bowl. Enjoy seeing two historical, small-market teams battle it out, ironically, at Jerry World. Enjoy it while you can.

And hope that cooler, more visionary owners prevail over Jones in the off-season.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics: Super Bowl Edition

I was prepping some notes for a radio bit I did this morning, and it seemed to me these were some interesting numbers to play around with. Do with them as you will:

QUARTERBACK COMPARISON - 2010 Season Stats:

QB RATING
Rogers -- 3rd in NFL at 101.2
Pig Ben -- 5th in NFL at 97.0

YARDS PER ATTEMPT
Rogers -- 2nd in NFL with 8.26 yards per attempt
Pig Ben -- 3rd in NFL with 8.23 yards per attempt

COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Rogers -- 6th in the NFL at 65.7%
Pig Ben -- 15th in the NFL at 61.7%

YARDS PER GAME
Pig Ben -- 6th in the NFL at 267 yards per game
Rogers -- 7th in the NFL at 261 yards per game

PASSES of +20 YARDS
Rogers -- 4th in the NFL with 54
Pig Ben -- 6th in the NFL with 52

PASSES of + 40 YARDS
Rogers -- 5th in the NFL with 10
Pig Ben -- 14th in the NFL with 8

TOUCHDOWN PASSES
Rogers -- 6th in the NFL with 28
Pig Ben -- 19th in the NFL with 17

DEFENSIVE COMPARISON:

FEWEST POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME
Steelers -- 1st in NFL with 14.5
Packers -- 2nd in NFL 15.0

THIRD DOWN CONV. PERCENTAGE AGAINST
Steelers -- 2nd at 34%
Packers -- 9th at 36%

RUSH YARDS ALLOWED PER GAME
Steelers -- 1st with 62.8 yd/game
Packers -- 18th with 114.9 yd/game

RUSH PLAYS ALLOWED OF + 20 YARDS
Steelers -- 1st with 1
Packers -- 10th with 10

AVERAGE RUSH YARDS PER ATTEMPT
Steelers -- 1st with 3.0 yards per attempt
Packers -- 18th with 4.7 yards per attempt

PASS YARDS ALLOWED PER GAME
Packers -- 5th at 194.2
Steelers -- 12th at 214.2

TOTAL SACKS
Steelers -- 1st with 48 sacks
Packers -- 2nd with 47 sacks

QB RATING AGAINST
Packers -- 1st at 67.2
Steelers -- 2nd at 73.1

PASSING TOUCHDOWNS AGAINST
Steelers -- 3rd -- allowed 15
Packers -- 4th -- allowed 16

Monday, January 31, 2011

Will Experience Be a Determining Factor in Super Bowl XLV?

The Pittsburgh Steelers have 14 starters with Super Bowl experience and 11 of those guys have played in two Super Bowls. [That doesn't include back ups like Larry Foote and Antwan Randal El, who both have Super Bowl experience. That's just the starters listed on the offensive and defensive depth charts.] The Packers, meanwhile, have just two starters with Super Bowl experience -- the amazing Charles Woodson and defensive end Ryan Pickett, who played his rookie year with the 2001 Rams.

Tomlin has coached in two Super Bowls (one as an assistant with the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs and, of course, as the head man for the 2008 Steelers.) Green Bay's head coach (and the pride of Greenfield!) Mike McCarthy has been to zero.

If experience were the sole determining factor, the Steelers would win in a landslide. But then, if experience were a determining factor for success in life, we would all watch "Murder She Wrote" reruns instead of "The Jersey Shore," AOL would still rule the internets, and Marv Levy would still be coaching.

Recent SB history is pretty mixed in terms of experience versus inexperience, so much so that you have to wonder if experience counts for anything at all. The Packers won SB XXXI, then promptly went out and lost XXXII to the Denver Broncos. The St. Louis Rams won SB XXXIV, then lost to the New England Patriots in XXXVI. Of course, those Pats won a couple more, but lost to the Giants in XLII. The Indy Colts won XLII, but lost XLIV to the New Orleans Saints. On the flip side, the Pats did win two more SB's after their first win. The Broncos defended their title and, of course, the 2008 Steelers defeated the Arizona Cardinals for a second title.

Clearly, experience does not equal a win, but what it might mean is that the Steelers can dispatch their jitters more quickly, or at least that's what I hope.

The Super Bowl, no matter how much coaches and players may want to treat it like a run of the mill game, is no run of the mill game. It's weird. It's crazy. Halftime is way longer. Big stars show up for the National Anthem. There are reporters there from all over the world. When a guy with a microphone and a podcast in the Republic of Palau can get media credential, rest assured it's an out of control spectacle.

Beyond that, the players know that all NFL eyes are on them. Guys play just a bit harder on Monday Night Football, knowing that the rest of the league is at home watching them play. They want to perform for their peers. They most certainly don't want to embarrass themselves. If there's that much more additional pressure on a Monday night in October, what must this feel like?

I don't believe there is any way to anticipate what this stage is like if you haven't played on it before. Hines Ward puked his guts out during introductions before SB XL. Pig Ben said that, in most games, he has butterflies at the start, but that they go very early on, but in XL, they never went away.

There's no question that Aaron Rogers has been riding a hot streak for the last month and a half and has made long stretches of the post-season look like a 6 on 6 scrimmage. At times, he has been more accurate than Brady, more mobile than Vick and cooler than Montana. But if the nerves get to him at the start, if the lights and glitz and media glare, not to mention Jerr'Jones' death star HD screen hanging above him, gives him a fit of the yips early on, the Steelers might have the crack they need.

It's reasonable to expect that Rogers and the Pack will have at least some nerves. And while they work through the butterflies and twitches, the Steelers need to dig the Packers' grave and push them into it.

We know the Packers can score. In the regular season, they averaged 24.3 points per game and have averaged 30 per game in the post-season. Nobody's putting 30 points up on the Steelers defense, but I don't think you can keep them out of the endzone all night, nerves or not. So the Steelers defense needs to create opportunities early and keep the Steelers offense on the field throughout the first half. Oh, and they need touchdowns, not field goals. Touchdowns just aren't going to do it in this one.

If the Steelers can build a big enough lead at the start, it could be all the difference end. Just ask the Jets.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview

The annual march to Super Bowl silliness is upon us and everyone is all a-flutter. A few months ago, I even heard Bill Simmons say that he believed we were on a collision course with a Roethlisberger v. Vick Super Bowl. Oy, the mass density of that media day would certainly cause a shifting in the global tides perhaps set off the opening of a crevasse that would swallow Jerr'Jones' Deathstar in Big D right on the spot. Okay, maybe that's just my wishful thinking, but I'm way ahead of myself here. Right now, let's just see how wildcard weekend breaks down.

New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks, 4:30 Saturday

Teeth have been gnashed, garments rended, and panties twisted over the Seahawks appearance in the playoffs this year, but I wonder, what do they have to do to win? Can they even win?

The Seahawks defense is near the bottom of the pickle barrel, allowing on average 24.5 points per game. By way of reference, the Steelers allow 10 fewer points per game. Meanwhile, the Saints hang up 24 points every week, give or take. I know that the Saints are without the services of their two most reliable running backs, and I know that Drew Brees has thrown a very un-Drew Brees-like 22 interceptions this year, and that Seattle's field is the loudest outdoor facility in the NFL, and that weather can be a factor, but even given all of that, it's hard for me to think that the Saints won't put up five touchdowns today.

What the Saints need to do to win: don't turn the ball over.

What the Seahawks need to do to win: hope that Drew Brees turns into Heath Shuler.



New York Jets v. Indianapolis Colts, 8:00 Saturday

The match up of the day, featuring the coach who never met a microphone he didn't like versus one who I'm not sure is even awake half the time. I value equanimity, but Jim Caldwell always looks like he's thinking about something, anything else but the football game in front of him, like he's day-dreaming about playing a game of catch in the backyard with his grandkids or something.

After Peyton Manning torched the Jets other corner last year, Sexy Rexy Ryan went out and got Antonio Cromartie to balance out Revis Island. The problem for the Jets is the underneath coverage, where they are without safety Jim Leohnard. If Manning finds a way to exploit the middle of the field coverage, the Colts could put up a ton of points. And that means that Mark Sanchez, et al. will need to match them.

What the Colts need to do to win: give coach Caldwell some Red Bull and protect Manning so he can find open receivers underneath.

What the Jets need to do to win: promise Santonio Holmes two extra blunts as a bonus for every touchdown he catches.



Baltimore Ravens v. Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 SundayThe Chiefs? In the playoffs? Yup. And I love it, because I think, after long scientific studies, that Kansas City fans are among the best in the league. I'm glad to see the playoffs back there.

The Chiefs have the best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging over 164 yards per game on the ground, but if Todd Haley and his coaches think that the Ravens are going to let them get away with that, they have another thing coming. This is not the 2000 Ravens defense. Heck, it isn't even the 2006 Ravens defense. But they are capable of taking away the one thing a team wants to do (run) and make them do something else (pass.) If the Chiefs don't find a way to pass the ball effectively, it's going to be a long day.

What the Ravens need to do to win: stop the Chiefs running game and let Ed Reed ballhawk.

What the Chiefs need to do to win: sub-contract with Troy Polamalu to come in and make an amazing, game changing play some time in the 4th quarter.



Green Bay Packers v. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:00 Sunday
First Mike Vick was a pariah, then he just wasn't that good, then he was the league MVP, then he was complaining about getting hit too much, then he was just pretty good. And that's where we are now. Mike Vick, up from Hades, but back down from the Mount Olympus of football. Meanwhile, the Packers defense, a big, big liability last year, has turned into a dominant, intimidating unit this year. Dom Capers is just more evidence that being a great coordinator (he is) does not make you a great head coach (he isn't.)
Both defenses like to blitz and the Eagles have 23 interceptions, half of which have come when they've been blitzing. Meanwhile, the other defense has recorded 47 sacks this year, second most in the NFL. Basically, for both teams, this game comes down to their ability to protect their quarterbacks. Or get to the opposing quarterback, as the case may be.

What the Packers need to do to win: Find a way to pick up the Eagles blitz and keep Aaron Rogers' clean and upright.

What the Eagles need to do to win: find a way to keep Clay Matthews out of Mike Vick's grill. Oh, and also bring a fan out of the stands to manage the clock for Andy Reid if things are close in late in the game.